Zhao Shi, Cao Peihua, Gao Daozhou, Zhuang Zian, Wang Weiming, Ran Jinjun, Wang Kai, Yang Lin, Einollahi Mohammad R, Lou Yijun, He Daihai, Wang Maggie H
JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Jun;7(2):189-195. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005. Epub 2022 May 26.
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7-7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
截至2020年2月20日，“钻石公主”号邮轮上爆发的2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）已导致634多例病例。我们将“钻石公主”号邮轮上的传播过程建模为一个随机分支过程，并估计初始阶段的再生数为2.9（95%可信区间：1.7 - 7.7）。疫情倍增时间为3.4天，因此及时采取COVID-19防控行动至关重要。我们估计，2月5日在“钻石公主”号邮轮上实施检疫计划后，COVID-19的传播性降低了34%。根据模型模拟，转移高危人群可能会持续减小疫情规模，推迟疫情高峰时间，从而缓解医疗保健方面的紧张需求。在其他类似情况下应吸取邮轮上的经验教训。
