Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Jul;28(7):1355-1365. doi: 10.3201/eid2807.220033. Epub 2022 May 31.
We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemiologic modeling shows that, in spite of its decreased virulence, the Omicron variant can generate important critical COVID-19 activity in hospitals in France. The magnitude of the BA.2 wave in hospitals depends on the level of relaxing of control measures but remains lower than that of BA.1 in median scenarios.
我们分析了 2021 年 9 月 1 日至 2022 年 2 月 28 日期间从法国富集的 16973 个全基因组序列中筛选的 324734 个 SARS-CoV-2 变异体检测结果。结果表明，奥密克戎变异体相对于德尔塔变异体的估计生长优势为 105%（95%CI96%-114%），BA.2 谱系相对于 BA.1 谱系的优势为 49%（95%CI44%-52%）。定量 PCR 循环阈值与奥密克戎产生突破性感染的能力增加相一致。流行病学建模表明，尽管奥密克戎变异体的毒力降低，但它仍能在法国医院引发重要的 COVID-19 活动。医院中 BA.2 波的规模取决于控制措施放松的程度，但在中位数情况下仍低于 BA.1。
