Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.
Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Nat Hum Behav. 2022 Dec;6(12):1615-1624. doi: 10.1038/s41562-022-01363-1. Epub 2022 Jun 2.
We evaluate the impact of government-mandated proof of vaccination requirements for access to public venues and non-essential businesses on COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We find that the announcement of a mandate is associated with a rapid and significant surge in new vaccinations (a more than 60% increase in weekly first doses), using the variation in the timing of these measures across Canadian provinces in a difference-in-differences approach. Time-series analysis for each province and for France, Italy and Germany corroborates this finding. Counterfactual simulations using our estimates suggest the following cumulative gains in the vaccination rate among the eligible population (age 12 and over) as of 31 October 2021: up to 5 percentage points (p.p.) (90% confidence interval, 3.9-5.8) for Canadian provinces, adding up to 979,000 (425,000-1,266,000) first doses in total for Canada (5 to 13 weeks after the provincial mandate announcements); 8 p.p. (4.3-11) for France (16 weeks post-announcement); 12 p.p. (5-15) for Italy (14 weeks post-announcement) and 4.7 p.p. (4.1-5.1) for Germany (11 weeks post-announcement).
我们评估了政府强制要求接种疫苗以进入公共场所和非必要企业对 COVID-19 疫苗接种率的影响。我们发现，在使用加拿大各省在这些措施实施时间上的差异进行双重差分法分析时，疫苗接种的公告与新接种人数的快速显著增长（每周第一剂的接种量增加了 60%以上）有关。对每个省以及法国、意大利和德国的时间序列分析证实了这一发现。使用我们的估计值进行反事实模拟表明，截至 2021 年 10 月 31 日，以下是符合条件人群（12 岁及以上）的疫苗接种率的累计收益：加拿大各省最多可增加 5 个百分点（90%置信区间：3.9-5.8），加拿大总计增加 979,000 剂第一剂（省级疫苗接种要求公告后 5 至 13 周）；法国为 8 个百分点（4.3-11）（公告后 16 周）；意大利为 12 个百分点（5-15）（公告后 14 周）；德国为 4.7 个百分点（4.1-5.1）（公告后 11 周）。
