Université Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France.
, Bruegel, Belgium.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 8;13(1):3942. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1.
In the COVID-19 pandemic many countries required COVID certificates, proving vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, to access public and private venues. We estimate their effect on vaccine uptake for France, Germany, and Italy using counterfactuals constructed via innovation diffusion theory. The announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 were associated - although causality cannot be directly inferred - with increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7-14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population until the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6-6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4-12.3) p.p. Based on these estimates, an additional 3979 (3453-4298) deaths in France, 1133 (-312-1358) in Germany, and 1331 (502-1794) in Italy were averted; and gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9-6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3-1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0-2.2) billion in Italy were prevented. Notably, in France, the application of COVID certificates averted high intensive care unit occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated.
在 COVID-19 大流行期间，许多国家要求提供 COVID 证书，以证明接种疫苗、康复或最近的阴性检测结果，才能进入公共和私人场所。我们使用创新扩散理论构建反事实来估计 COVID 证书对法国、德国和意大利疫苗接种的影响。虽然不能直接推断因果关系，但 2021 年夏季宣布 COVID 证书与法国疫苗接种率增加有关，截至年底，法国总人口增加了 13.0（95%CI9.7-14.9）个百分点，德国增加了 6.2（2.6-6.9）个百分点，意大利增加了 9.7（5.4-12.3）个百分点。根据这些估计，法国可避免额外 3979 人（3453-4298）死亡，德国可避免 1133 人（-312-1358）死亡，意大利可避免 1331 人（502-1794）死亡；法国 GDP 损失 60 亿欧元（59-61 亿欧元），德国损失 140 亿欧元（1.3-1.5 亿欧元），意大利损失 210 亿欧元（2.0-2.2 亿欧元）。值得注意的是，在法国，COVID 证书的应用避免了高重症监护病房入住率，此前曾实施过封锁。
