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[利用多数据源三角测量法评估新冠疫情对秘鲁死亡率的影响 通过多数据源三角测量法评估新冠疫情对秘鲁死亡率的影响]

[Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Peru using triangulation of multiple data sourcesImpacto da COVID-19 na mortalidade no Peru por meio da triangulação de várias fontes de dados].

作者信息

Valdez Huarcaya William, Miranda Monzón Jorge Antonio, Napanga Saldaña Edwin Omar, Driver Cynthia R

机构信息

Vital Strategies Nueva York Estados Unidos de América Vital Strategies, Nueva York. Estados Unidos de América.

Ministerio de Salud Lima Perú Ministerio de Salud, Lima. Perú.

出版信息

Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2022 Jun 3;46:e53. doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2022.53. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.26633/RPSP.2022.53
PMID:35677217
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9168419/
Abstract

An analytic cross-sectional study was conducted to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Peru. Total excess mortality due to natural and external causes was calculated. The direct and indirect impact of COVID-19 was estimated at two points: when COVID-19 deaths were confirmed by a laboratory test and when they were confirmed by broader criteria (reclassified deaths). This comparison was made in general and by sex, age, and geographical location. The sensitivity of laboratory testing and of death certificates as criteria for confirmation of a COVID-19 death was calculated using reclassified deaths as the gold standard.From epidemiological week (EW) 10 of 2020 to EW 23 of 2021, 349 756 deaths occurred, for an excess of 183 237 deaths, mainly due to natural causes. A total of 100 955 deaths corresponded to deaths confirmed by laboratory tests; however, the reclassification criterion brought this figure to 188 708. Laboratory tests had 53.3% sensitivity; this was lower at the onset of the pandemic (10.6%) and during the first wave (37.8%). The sensitivity of death certificates was higher than laboratory tests (41.7% vs 23.9%) only during the months when little testing was available. These data showed that the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Peru was mainly direct. Also, in periods with limited access to laboratory testing, death certificates were a useful source for determining deaths directly caused by COVID-19.

摘要

开展了一项分析性横断面研究,以量化2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)对秘鲁死亡率的影响。计算了自然和外部原因导致的总超额死亡率。在两个时间点估计了COVID-19的直接和间接影响:一是通过实验室检测确诊COVID-19死亡病例时,二是通过更广泛标准(重新分类的死亡病例)确诊时。总体上以及按性别、年龄和地理位置进行了此项比较。以重新分类的死亡病例作为金标准,计算了实验室检测和死亡证明作为COVID-19死亡确诊标准的敏感性。

从2020年第10个流行病学周(EW)至2021年第23个EW,共发生349756例死亡,超额死亡183237例,主要是自然原因导致的。共有100955例死亡病例经实验室检测确诊;然而,重新分类标准使这一数字增至188708例。实验室检测的敏感性为53.3%;在疫情初期(10.6%)和第一波疫情期间(37.8%)较低。仅在检测机会较少的月份,死亡证明的敏感性高于实验室检测(41.7%对23.9%)。这些数据表明,COVID-19对秘鲁死亡率的影响主要是直接的。此外,在实验室检测机会有限的时期,死亡证明是确定由COVID-19直接导致的死亡病例的有用来源。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ede8/9168419/e85b102508f9/rpsp-46-e53_Figure2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ede8/9168419/8dbdded491b6/rpsp-46-e53_Figure1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ede8/9168419/e85b102508f9/rpsp-46-e53_Figure2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ede8/9168419/8dbdded491b6/rpsp-46-e53_Figure1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ede8/9168419/e85b102508f9/rpsp-46-e53_Figure2.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Lancet Reg Health Am. 2021 Oct;2:None. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100039.
2
Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19.死亡报告不足限制了我们对新冠疫情真实负担的了解。
BMJ. 2021 Oct 12;375:n2239. doi: 10.1136/bmj.n2239.
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Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.
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IJID Reg. 2023 Oct 12;9:72-79. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.10.004. eCollection 2023 Dec.
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Conceptual and empirical reflection provide more arguments for the centrality of extreme poverty in COVID-19 vaccination: A reply to Abal and Zeledón-Ramírez et al.概念性和实证性反思为极端贫困在新冠疫苗接种中的核心地位提供了更多论据:对阿巴尔和泽莱登 - 拉米雷斯等人的回应
Dev World Bioeth. 2023 Sep;23(3):209-210. doi: 10.1111/dewb.12410. Epub 2023 Jun 20.
2020 年与新冠大流行相关的超额死亡人数:29 个高收入国家按年龄和性别细分的时间序列分析。
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