Potential Distribution of Invasive Boxwood Blight Pathogen () as Predicted by Process-Based and Correlative Models.

Boxwood blight caused by is an emerging disease that has had devastating impacts on spp. in the horticultural sector, landscapes, and native ecosystems. In this study, we produced a process-based climatic suitability model in the CLIMEX program and combined outputs of four different correlative modeling algorithms to generate an ensemble correlative model. All models were fit and validated using a presence record dataset comprised of detections across its entire known invaded range. Evaluations of model performance provided validation of good model fit for all models. A consensus map of CLIMEX and ensemble correlative model predictions indicated that not-yet-invaded areas in eastern and southern Europe and in the southeastern, midwestern, and Pacific coast regions of North America are climatically suitable for establishment. Most regions of the world where and its congeners are native are also at risk of establishment. These findings provide the first insights into global invasion threat, suggesting that this invasive pathogen has the potential to significantly expand its range.