Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2022 Aug 15;377(1857):20210383. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0383. Epub 2022 Jun 27.
We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.
我们正处在气候和生态紧急状况中,气候变化和人类直接干预生物圈正带来风险,可能导致威胁我们生命维持系统的突然和/或不可逆转的变化。目前正在努力提高受到威胁的一些生态系统的恢复力,但集体意识和行动充其量只是适度的。在这里,我们强调生物圈恢复力感应系统的潜力,使我们更容易看到哪里出了问题,并了解旨在改善情况的刻意努力是否奏效。我们专注于通过卫星遥感以高时空分辨率对陆地生物圈进行全球恢复力感应,利用复杂系统的通用数学行为——恢复力的丧失对应于从扰动中恢复的速度较慢,恢复力的增加等同于更快的恢复。我们考虑了可以监测的生物圈恢复力遥感的哪个子集,批判性地回顾了现有研究。然后,我们展示了植被恢复力和过去 20 年来恢复力趋势的全球说明性结果,这些结果来自卫星数据和模型模拟。最后,我们讨论了在全球、生物群落-生态区和地方生态系统尺度上嵌套的恢复力感应如何有助于不同尺度的管理和治理,并确定了进一步工作的优先事项。本文是主题为“生态复杂性与生物圈:未来 30 年”的特刊的一部分。