Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.
School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jul 14;13(1):4077. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31729-y.
Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the potential cost and benefit of emission mitigation for each emitter. Here we use a global economic model to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon and the mitigation ambition of each region. We find a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, the relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, also shows a considerable geographical mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first submitted nationally determined contributions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient carbon mitigation strategies.
大幅提高碳减排目标是实现《巴黎协定》气候目标的关键步骤。然而，由于对每个排放者减排的潜在成本和收益知之甚少，这一尝试受到了阻碍。在这里，我们使用一个全球经济模型来评估 27 个主要排放国和地区的减排成本，并进一步将这些成本与减排的潜在收益进行对比，以避免社会碳成本和每个地区的减排目标来衡量。我们发现，每个二氧化碳减排吨的成本和收益之间存在很强的负空间相关性。同时，碳减排的相对适宜性（定义为归一化收益与归一化成本的比值）也与排放者在其首次提交的国家确定贡献中所表明的减排目标存在相当大的地理不匹配。我们的工作为加强协调一致的气候行动和制定更有效的碳减排战略提供了重要信息。
