Khafaie Morteza Abdullatif, Rahim Fakher
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran.
Thalassemia & Hemoglobinopathy Research Center, Health Research Institute, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran.
Cent Asian J Glob Health. 2021 Jan 15;10(1):e489. doi: 10.5195/cajgh.2021.489. eCollection 2021.
Case fatality rates (CFRs) and case recovery rates (CRRs) are frequently used to define health consequences related to specific disease epidemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to compare various methods and models for calculating CFR and CRR related to COVID-19 based on the global and national data available as of April 2020.
This analytical epidemiologic study was conducted based on detailed data from 210 countries and territories worldwide in April 2020. We used three different formulas to measure CFR and CRR, considering all possible scenarios.
We included information for 72 countries with more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19. Overall, using first, second, and third estimation models, the CFR were 6.22%, 21.20%, and 8.67%, respectively; similarly, the CRR was estimated as 23.21%, 78.86%, 32.23%, respectively. We have shown that CFRs vary so much spatially and depend on the estimation method and timing of case reports, likely resulting in overestimation.
Even with the more precise method of CFRs estimation, the value is overestimated. Case fatality and recovery rates should not be the only measures used to evaluate disease severity, and the better assessment measures need to be developed as indicators of countries' performance during COVID-19 pandemic.
病死率（CFRs）和病例康复率（CRRs）经常被用于界定与特定疾病流行相关的健康后果，包括新冠疫情。本研究旨在根据截至2020年4月可获取的全球和国家数据，比较计算与新冠病毒相关的病死率和病例康复率的各种方法和模型。
本分析性流行病学研究基于2020年4月全球210个国家和地区的详细数据开展。我们使用三种不同公式来衡量病死率和病例康复率，考虑了所有可能情况。
我们纳入了72个新冠病毒病例超过1000例的国家的信息。总体而言，使用第一、第二和第三种估计模型时，病死率分别为6.22%、21.20%和8.67%；同样，病例康复率分别估计为23.21%、78.86%、32.23%。我们已经表明，病死率在空间上差异很大，并且取决于估计方法和病例报告时间，这可能导致高估。
即使采用更精确的病死率估计方法，该值仍被高估。病死率和康复率不应是评估疾病严重程度的唯一指标，需要开发更好的评估指标来衡量各国在新冠疫情期间的表现。
