Jo Yun, Sung Hyungun
Graduate School of Urban Studies, Hanyang University, 222, Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul, 04763, South Korea.
J Transp Health. 2022 Sep;26:101479. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2022.101479. Epub 2022 Jul 18.
Physical mobility is critical for the spread of infectious diseases in humans. However, few studies have conducted empirical investigations on the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the diffusion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, this study examines its impact at the city-county level on the diffusion by the wave period during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.
This study first employs factor analysis by using the travel origin-destination data by travel mode at the county level as of 2019 to derive pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns. Next, the study identifies how they had affected the diffusion of COVID-19 over time by employing the negative binomial regression models on confirmed COVID-19 cases for each wave, including the entire pandemic period.
The study derived five pre-pandemic mobility patterns: 1) rail-oriented mobility, 2) intra-county bus-oriented mobility, 3) road-oriented mobility, 4) high-speed rail-oriented mobility, and 5) inter-county bus-oriented mobility. Among them, the biggest risk to the diffusion of COVID-19 was the rail-oriented mobility before the pandemic if controlling such measures as accessibility, physical environment, and demographic and socioeconomic indicators. In addition, the order of the magnitudes for the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility factors on its spatial diffusion had not changed during experiencing the three different wave periods during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.
The study concludes that the rail-oriented travel mobility pattern before the pandemic could pose the greatest threat factor to the spatial spread of COVID-19 at any scale and time. Policymakers should develop strategies to prevent the spatial spread of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility for daily living in areas with strong rail mobility patterns formed before the pandemic.
身体移动性对传染病在人群中的传播至关重要。然而，很少有研究对疫情前的出行移动模式对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传播的影响进行实证调查。因此，本研究在韩国两年疫情期间，考察了其在市县层面按波次对传播的影响。
本研究首先通过使用2019年县级按出行方式划分的出行起讫点数据进行因子分析，以得出疫情前的出行移动模式。接下来，该研究通过对包括整个疫情期间在内的每一波次确诊的COVID-19病例采用负二项回归模型，来确定它们如何随时间影响COVID-19的传播。
该研究得出了五种疫情前的移动模式：1）以铁路为导向的移动性，2）县内以公交为导向的移动性，3）以公路为导向的移动性，4）以高铁为导向的移动性，以及5）县际以公交为导向的移动性。其中，如果控制可达性、物理环境以及人口和社会经济指标等措施，疫情前对COVID-19传播的最大风险是以铁路为导向的移动性。此外，在韩国两年疫情期间经历的三个不同波次中，疫情前出行移动因素对其空间传播影响的量级顺序没有变化。
该研究得出结论，疫情前以铁路为导向的出行移动模式可能在任何规模和时间对COVID-19的空间传播构成最大威胁因素。政策制定者应制定策略，通过减少疫情前形成的铁路移动性强的地区的日常人类移动性，来防止COVID-19的空间传播。
