Architectural Engineering School, Tongling University, Tongling 244000, China.
Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 22;19(15):8917. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19158917.
Water stress in countries within a drainage basin exacerbates the water quantity conflict in transboundary rivers. However, few studies considered the invisible effect of virtual water transfer on water quantity conflict by intensifying water stress. Therefore, this study, with Ili River as the case, collects data on Virtual Water Trade (VWT) from 1990 to 2015, uses water stress index (WSI) to assess water stress values under two scenarios (with or without virtual water transfer), and takes Grey Verhulst Model to predict two scenarios water stress values respectively. Next, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) Algorithm, this study compares the water quantity conflict intensity of the two scenarios, and further explores the invisible effect of virtual water transfer on the conflicts among transboundary rivers. Results show: (1) During the study period (1990-2015), water stress in China and Kazakhstan along the banks of Ili River increased in general. (2) China was basically a net exporter of virtual water during 1990-1995, and Kazakhstan became a net exporter after 1995. (3) During 2020-2025, water conflict value of Ili River without virtual water transfer is 0.458, while the value rises to 0.622 with virtual water transfer, indicating that virtual water transfer between China and Kazakhstan has an invisible enhancement on the water quantity conflict of Ili River. (4) The intensified water quantity conflict is mainly caused by the more and more serious water stress in Kazakhstan. On such basis, it is more urgent for Kazakhstan to restructure its economy and trade.
流域内国家的水资源压力加剧了跨界河流的水量冲突。然而，很少有研究考虑到虚拟水转移通过加剧水资源压力对水量冲突的无形影响。因此，本研究以伊犁河流域为例，收集了 1990 年至 2015 年的虚拟水贸易数据，使用水资源压力指数（WSI）评估了两种情景（有虚拟水转移和无虚拟水转移）下的水资源压力值，并采用灰色 Verhulst 模型分别对两种情景下的水资源压力值进行预测。接下来，基于 Levenberg-Marquardt（LM）算法，本研究比较了两种情景下的水量冲突强度，并进一步探讨了虚拟水转移对跨界河流冲突的无形影响。结果表明：（1）在研究期间（1990-2015 年），伊犁河流域中哈两国的水资源压力总体呈上升趋势。（2）1990-1995 年期间，中国一直是虚拟水的净出口国，而 1995 年以后，哈萨克斯坦成为了虚拟水的净出口国。（3）在 2020-2025 年期间，没有虚拟水转移的伊犁河的水量冲突值为 0.458，而有虚拟水转移的水量冲突值上升到 0.622，表明中哈之间的虚拟水转移对伊犁河的水量冲突具有无形的增强作用。（4）加剧的水量冲突主要是由于哈萨克斯坦水资源压力越来越大。在此基础上，哈萨克斯坦更迫切需要调整其经济和贸易结构。
