Oscar Espinosa, Jhonathan Rodríguez, Adriana Robayo, Leonardo Arregocés, Nicolás Agudelo, Carolina Suárez, Andrés Herrera, Daniel Wills, David Aguilar
Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud & Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia.
Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica en Salud, Colombia.
Vaccine X. 2022 Dec;12:100197. doi: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2022.100197. Epub 2022 Jul 28.
This research estimated the optimal size and composition of the portfolio, and its benefit-cost ratio, of COVID-19 vaccines that Colombia should negotiate as a price-taking country. The Advance Market Commitments (AMC) mathematical model was applied using the parameters from the Colombian context and from a literature review. The findings indicate that the optimal portfolio of Colombia should include 13 vaccines, mainly from two platforms: i) RNA and ii) inactivated virus. The benefit-cost ratio was always greater than one in the baseline scenario and after performing many sensitivity analyses on parameters such as the percentage of the population at risk, the price per treatment, and the herd immunity threshold, among others. In a context of high uncertainty, the best decision - with high benefit - is to anticipate the negotiation processes with the providers of COVID-19 vaccines, which will generate positive economic and health impacts.
本研究估算了哥伦比亚作为价格接受国应谈判采购的新冠疫苗组合的最优规模和构成及其效益成本比。采用了来自哥伦比亚实际情况及文献综述的参数，应用了预承诺市场（AMC）数学模型。研究结果表明，哥伦比亚的最优疫苗组合应包括13种疫苗，主要来自两个平台：i）RNA疫苗和ii）灭活病毒疫苗。在基准情景下以及对诸如高危人群百分比、每次治疗价格和群体免疫阈值等参数进行多次敏感性分析后，效益成本比始终大于1。在高度不确定的情况下，最佳决策（具有高收益）是提前与新冠疫苗供应商展开谈判进程，这将产生积极的经济和健康影响。
