Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA.
BMC Infect Dis. 2021 Apr 9;21(1):335. doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4.
Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.
Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.
Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.
High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.
2019 年 2 月，华盛顿州西部异常高的降雪导致学校和工作场所大范围关闭。我们评估了这种极端天气事件导致的社交距离对呼吸道病毒传播的影响。
对西雅图大都市区医院评估急性呼吸道疾病的患者的剩余标本进行了呼吸道病毒检测。对每种病毒都建立了传播模型，以估计由于与天气相关的干扰而导致的传播幅度降低。接触率和寻求护理的变化通过当地交通量和医院就诊的数据来告知。
在干预期间，接触模式的中断使有效接触率降低了 16%至 95%，并使整个季节的累积疾病发病率降低了 3%至 9%。在中断发生时处于高峰期的病毒的发病率降低最大，而处于早期流行阶段的病毒的发病率降低最小。
如果在流行高峰期附近实施高强度、短时间的社交距离措施，可能会大大降低呼吸道病毒流行中的总发病率。对于 SARS-CoV-2，这表明，即使 SARS-CoV-2 的传播失去控制，实施短期干扰也可以预防 COVID-19 死亡。
