Warsame Abdimalik Ali, Mohamed Jama, Mohamed Abdinur Ali
Garaad Institute for Social Research and Development Studies, Mogadishu, Somalia.
Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(3):7825-7835. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22595-8. Epub 2022 Aug 31.
Climate change is an imminent threat to both developing and developed countries. Various determinants of climate change have been discovered in the literature including, inter alia, the agriculture sector. To this end, this study models the role of agricultural crops - maize, sesame, sorghum, and wheat productions - and livestock production in environmental degradation in Somalia for the period of 1985 to 2017. The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for the long-run cointegration between the variables, and vector error correction modeling (VECM) for short- and long-run causalities among the variables. The empirical result revealed the presence of a long-run cointegration between environmental degradation, agricultural crops, and livestock production. All the crops and livestock production increase environmental degradation except wheat production which has a constructive role in reducing environmental degradation in the long run. In contrast, the VECM results detected a short-run causality from sorghum to livestock production. Environmental degradation, sesame, sorghum, and wheat productions cause maize production significantly in the short run as well as in the long run. Moreover, sesame production causes sorghum production in the short run. Likewise, a long-run causality is established from environmental degradation, maize, sesame, livestock, and wheat production to sorghum production. However, Somalia policymakers should institute agricultural policies that are not only sustainable for agricultural production practices to meet the growing food demand but also sustainable to the environment.
气候变化对发展中国家和发达国家都是迫在眉睫的威胁。文献中已经发现了气候变化的各种决定因素，其中尤其包括农业部门。为此，本研究对1985年至2017年期间索马里的农作物（玉米、芝麻、高粱和小麦产量）以及畜牧生产在环境退化中的作用进行了建模。该研究应用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）来分析变量之间的长期协整关系，并应用向量误差修正模型（VECM）来分析变量之间的短期和长期因果关系。实证结果表明，环境退化、农作物和畜牧生产之间存在长期协整关系。除了小麦生产从长期来看对减少环境退化具有建设性作用外，所有农作物和畜牧生产都会加剧环境退化。相比之下，VECM结果检测到高粱到畜牧生产之间存在短期因果关系。环境退化、芝麻、高粱和小麦产量在短期和长期都会显著影响玉米产量。此外，芝麻产量在短期内会影响高粱产量。同样，从环境退化、玉米、芝麻、畜牧和小麦产量到高粱产量之间建立了长期因果关系。然而，索马里的政策制定者应该制定不仅对农业生产实践可持续以满足不断增长的粮食需求，而且对环境也可持续的农业政策。
