de Paiva Pires Samuel
Centre for Public Administration and Public Policies, Institute of Social and Political Sciences, Universidade de Lisboa, Rua Almerindo Lessa, 1300-663, Lisboa, Portugal.
Society. 2022;59(6):747-758. doi: 10.1007/s12115-022-00751-7. Epub 2022 Aug 8.
In the last decade, the European Union (EU), a bulwark of the liberal international order, has been subject to a high degree of turmoil resulting from various processes and crises and has witnessed the rise of national populism, of which Brexit was the main exponent. The leadership of the order was also impacted by the changes in the foreign policy of the United States of America (USA) effected by the Trump Administration. The USA, the United Kingdom (UK), and the EU are the leaders of the liberal zone of peace and if national populism structurally affects them the liberal international order could be seriously challenged. Among the various instances of national populism, Brexit remains a significant challenge to the EU and might greatly impact the liberal international order. By adopting an interpretivist methodology anchored in hermeneutics and in the methodological approach of emergent causation, this article seeks to understand how Brexit, as an internal challenge to the order, and the rise of China and other revisionist powers, as an external one, might influence the future of the liberal international order and great power competition. I argue that the news of the order's death is greatly exaggerated, and that depending on British, German, and US variables, Brexit and the rise of China can either challenge or reinforce the liberal international order. Nevertheless, liberalism has a resilience no other political perspective has due to its innate ability for criticism and adaptation to change. Considering that the current liberal international order is a USA-led order, I argue that these are the two main variables concerning how Brexit might influence the liberal international order and how the order's leading powers will adapt their strategies and foreign policies towards China and other revisionist powers.
在过去十年中，作为自由国际秩序堡垒的欧盟，因各种进程和危机而陷入高度动荡，见证了国家民粹主义的兴起，英国脱欧是其主要代表。该秩序的领导力还受到特朗普政府对美国外交政策所做改变的影响。美国、英国和欧盟是自由和平区的领导者，如果国家民粹主义在结构上对它们产生影响，自由国际秩序可能会受到严重挑战。在各种国家民粹主义事例中，英国脱欧对欧盟仍是一项重大挑战，可能会对自由国际秩序产生重大影响。本文采用一种基于诠释学和新兴因果关系方法论的解释主义方法，旨在理解作为对该秩序内部挑战的英国脱欧，以及作为外部挑战的中国和其他修正主义大国的崛起，如何可能影响自由国际秩序的未来以及大国竞争。我认为，有关该秩序消亡的消息被大大夸大了，而且取决于英国、德国和美国的变量，英国脱欧和中国的崛起既可能挑战也可能强化自由国际秩序。然而，自由主义具有一种其他政治观点所没有的韧性，因为它天生具有批评和适应变化的能力。鉴于当前的自由国际秩序是以美国为首的秩序，我认为这是两个主要变量，涉及英国脱欧如何可能影响自由国际秩序，以及该秩序的主导大国将如何调整其针对中国和其他修正主义大国的战略及外交政策。
