School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 17;17(8):e0272670. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272670. eCollection 2022.
This study explores the war-growth nexus in Afghanistan, a country where war-torn acts inform resource allocation. Employing the asymmetric ARDL, dynamic multipliers, and asymmetric causality techniques, the initial results confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric nexus amid predictors. The asymmetric ARDL results indicate that a positive asymmetric shock from the per capita cost of war reduces per capita GDP-that is, economic growth-while a negative asymmetric shock from the per capita cost of war increases growth in the short and long run. Moreover, the findings reveal that per capita capital investment, per capita energy consumption, per capita household consumption, per capita remittance, per capita foreign direct investment, population growth, and inflation rate have significantly asymmetric effects on growth, highlighting non-monotonic impacts in scale and magnitude. The results of the asymmetric causality technique by bootstrap confirm that there is an asymmetric bidirectional causality between growth, per capita cost of war, per capita household consumption, per capita capital investment, and per capita foreign direct investment, while expanding only unidirectional causality with per capita remittance, population growth, and inflation rate. Based on the findings, the study concludes by offering relevant policy recommendations.
本研究探讨了阿富汗的战争-增长关系，在这个饱受战争蹂躏的国家，战争行为影响着资源配置。本研究采用非对称 ARDL、动态乘数和非对称因果关系技术，初步结果证实了预测因子之间存在长期非对称关系。非对称 ARDL 结果表明，人均战争成本的正向非对称冲击会降低人均 GDP，即经济增长，而人均战争成本的负向非对称冲击会在短期和长期内增加增长。此外，研究结果表明，人均资本投资、人均能源消耗、人均家庭消费、人均汇款、人均外国直接投资、人口增长和通货膨胀率对增长具有显著的非对称影响，突出了规模和程度上的非单调影响。通过 bootstrap 的非对称因果关系技术的结果证实，增长、人均战争成本、人均家庭消费、人均资本投资和人均外国直接投资之间存在非对称双向因果关系，而与人均汇款、人口增长和通货膨胀率仅存在单向因果关系。基于研究结果，本文最后提出了相关政策建议。
