School of Business; Faculty of Business, Education, Law and Arts, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia.
BMC Public Health. 2023 Jan 23;23(1):154. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14720-6.
This study examines the effects of long-run civil wars on healthcare, which is an important component of human capital development and their causality nexus in Afghanistan using the MVAR (modified vector autoregressive) approach and the Granger non-causality model covering data period 2002Q3-2020Q4. The primary results support a significant long-run relationship between variables, while the results of the MVAR model indicate the per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, and age dependency ratio have significantly positive impacts on per capita health expenditures, whereas child mortality rate and crude death rate have negative impacts. The results of the Granger non-causality approach demonstrate that there is a statistically significant bidirectional causality nexus between per capita health expenditure, per capita cost of war, per capita GDP, child mortality rate, crude death rate, and age dependency ratio, while it also supports the existence of strong and significant interconnectivity and multidimensionality between per capita cost of war and per capita health expenditure, with a significantly strong feedback response from the control variables. Important policy implications sourced from the key findings are also discussed.
本研究使用 MVAR（修正向量自回归）方法和格兰杰非因果模型，考察了长期内战对医疗保健的影响，这是人力资本发展的重要组成部分，以及阿富汗的因果关系。数据期间为 2002Q3-2020Q4。主要结果支持变量之间存在显著的长期关系，而 MVAR 模型的结果表明，战争人均成本、人均国内生产总值和年龄抚养比对人均医疗支出有显著的正向影响，而儿童死亡率和粗死亡率有负向影响。格兰杰非因果关系的结果表明，人均医疗支出、战争人均成本、人均国内生产总值、儿童死亡率、粗死亡率和年龄抚养比之间存在统计上显著的双向因果关系，同时也支持战争人均成本和人均医疗支出之间存在强大而显著的互联性和多维性，控制变量存在显著的强反馈响应。还讨论了从主要发现中得出的重要政策含义。
