Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Neuroscience Research Australia, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Australas J Ageing. 2022 Dec;41(4):e320-e327. doi: 10.1111/ajag.13116. Epub 2022 Aug 22.
To examine the demographic drivers that contribute to the future growth in the population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples living with dementia in Australia.
Design: Multistate, Indigenous status, cohort component, population projection model.
National-level, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.
Data prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on births, deaths, migration and identification change. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates of dementia prevalence alongside estimates from several studies.
Number of older people living with dementia alongside a decomposition of demographic drivers of growth.
By 2051, the relative growth in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples aged 50+ with dementia ranges from 4½ to 5½ times (under three prevalence scenarios) its 2016 estimate. Cohort flow (the gradual movement of younger cohorts into the 50+ age group, and the depletion of older cohorts from death, over time) is a key driver of the growth in the number of older people living with dementia.
High growth in the number of people living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health-care access and support for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families, carers and their communities.
探讨导致澳大利亚土著和托雷斯海峡岛民痴呆人口未来增长的人口驱动因素。
设计：多州、土著身份、队列组成、人口预测模型。
国家级，土著和托雷斯海峡岛民人口。
澳大利亚统计局编制的有关出生、死亡、迁移和身份变更的数据。澳大利亚卫生和福利研究所对痴呆症流行率的估计，以及来自几项研究的估计。
患有痴呆症的老年人人数以及人口增长的人口统计学驱动因素的分解。
到 2051 年，50 岁以上患有痴呆症的土著和托雷斯海峡岛民人数的相对增长范围为其 2016 年估计值的 4 ½ 至 5 ½ 倍（在三种流行率情景下）。队列流动（随着时间的推移，年轻队列逐渐进入 50 岁以上年龄组，以及较老队列因死亡而减少）是导致患有痴呆症的老年人数量增长的关键驱动因素。
痴呆症患者人数的快速增长对土著和托雷斯海峡岛民家庭、照顾者及其社区的文化上适当的护理、医疗保健的获取和支持提出了挑战。
