Song Yu, Chen Bo, Hou Na
Institute of Defense Economics and Management, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China.
J Chin Polit Sci. 2022 Aug 19:1-23. doi: 10.1007/s11366-022-09829-9.
This study applies a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore the time-varying property of the link between Sino-US political relations and trade. The results indicate that the association of these two variables appears to be unstable. Sino-US political relations have positive and negative impacts on their bilateral trade, and the impact on Chinese imports is stronger than on its exports. In turn, Chinese imports from the US lead to political conflict, while Chinese exports promote peace. The interaction mechanism may originate from the expectations of the future trade environment caused by trade policy uncertainty. The interactions between Sino-US political relations and bilateral trade at different time points are also investigated. The results demonstrate that the link between these two variables is slightly different, depending on the specific status of the bilateral political relationship (friendly, neutral or hostile). Both China and the US should seek common interests to maintain a stable political relationship, and even with an increasing volume of bilateral trade, the risk of political conflicts should not be neglected.
本研究应用时变参数/随机波动率向量自回归（TVP-SV-VAR）模型来探究中美政治关系与贸易之间联系的时变特性。结果表明，这两个变量之间的关联似乎并不稳定。中美政治关系对双边贸易有正负两方面影响，且对中国进口的影响强于对出口的影响。反过来，中国从美国的进口会引发政治冲突，而中国对美国的出口则促进和平。这种互动机制可能源于贸易政策不确定性所导致的对未来贸易环境的预期。同时也考察了不同时间点上中美政治关系与双边贸易之间的相互作用。结果表明，这两个变量之间的联系会因双边政治关系的具体状况（友好、中立或敌对）而略有不同。中美双方都应寻求共同利益以维持稳定的政治关系，即便双边贸易量不断增加，政治冲突风险也不应被忽视。
