Accelerating agriculture: Data-intensive plant breeding and the use of genetic gain as an indicator for agricultural research and development.

Accelerating the rate of genetic gain has in recent years become a key objective in plant breeding for the Global South, building on the availability of new data technologies and bridging biological interest in crop improvement with economic interest in enhancing the cost efficiency of breeding programs. This paper explains the concept of genetic gain, the conditions for its emerging status as an indicator of agricultural development and the broader implications of this move, with particular emphasis on the changing knowledge-control regimes of plant breeding, the social and political consequences for smallholder farmers and climate-adaptive agriculture. We analyse how prioritising the variables used to derive the indicator when deciding on agricultural policies affects the relationship between development goals and practice. We conclude that genetic gain should not be considered as a primary indicator of agricultural development in the absence of information on other key areas (including agrobiodiversity, seed systems and the differential impact of climate change on soil, crops and communities), as well as tools to evaluate the pros and cons of the acceleration in seed selection, management and evaluation fostered by the adoption of genetic gain as a key indicator.