Kawaguchi Akira, Kitabayashi Shoya, Inoue Koji, Tanina Koji
Western Region Agricultural Research Center (WARC) (Kinki, Chugoku, and Shikoku Regions), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Fukuyama 721-8514, Japan.
Research Institute for Agriculture, Okayama Prefectural Technology Center for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Akaiwa City 709-0801, Japan.
Plants (Basel). 2022 Aug 30;11(17):2253. doi: 10.3390/plants11172253.
A healthy, latently infected, diseased (HLD) plant model for botanical epidemics was defined for tomato bacterial canker (TBC) caused by the pathogenic plant bacteria, subsp. (). To estimate the infection probability parameter, inoculation experiments were conducted in which it was assumed that infection is transferred to healthy plants through contaminated scissors used to cut symptomless infected plants. The approximate concentration of in symptomless infected plants was 1 × 10 cells/mL, and the probability of infection of healthy tomato plants was approximately 0.75 due to cutting with scissors soaked in a cell suspension of at 1 × 10 cells/mL. Three different HLD models were developed by changing some parameters, and the D curve calculated by the developed HLD model A was quite similar to the curve of the proportion of diseased plants observed in fields that had a severe disease incidence. Under a simulation of disease incidence using this model, the basic reproduction number () was 2.6. However, if the infected scissors were disinfected using ethanol, was estimated as 0.3. The HLD model for TBC can be used to simulate the increasing number of diseased plants and the term of disease incidence.
针对由致病植物细菌番茄溃疡病菌（Clavibacter michiganensis subsp. michiganensis）引起的番茄细菌性溃疡病（TBC），定义了一种用于植物病害流行学的健康、潜伏感染、患病（HLD）植物模型。为了估计感染概率参数，进行了接种实验，实验中假设感染是通过用于切割无症状感染植株的受污染剪刀传播到健康植株上的。无症状感染植株中番茄溃疡病菌的近似浓度为1×10⁶个细胞/毫升，用浸泡在1×10⁶个细胞/毫升菌悬液中的剪刀切割时，健康番茄植株的感染概率约为0.75。通过改变一些参数开发了三种不同的HLD模型，所开发的HLD模型A计算出的D曲线与病害发生率严重的田间观察到的患病植株比例曲线非常相似。使用该模型进行病害发生率模拟时，基本繁殖数（R₀）为2.6。然而，如果用乙醇对受感染的剪刀进行消毒，R₀估计为0.3。番茄细菌性溃疡病的HLD模型可用于模拟患病植株数量的增加和病害发生期限。
