Ghazal Ikram, Rachadi Abdeljalil, Ez-Zahraouy Hamid
Laboratoire de Matière Condensée et des Sciences Interdisciplinaires (LaMCScI), Unité de recherche labellisée CNRST, Faculté des Sciences, Université Mohammed V de Rabat, B.P. 1014, Morocco.
Physica A. 2022 Dec 1;607:128166. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.128166. Epub 2022 Sep 6.
While SARS-CoV-2 vaccine distribution campaigns are underway across the world communities, these efforts face the challenge of effective distribution of limited supplies. We wonder whether suitable spatial allocation strategies might significantly improve a campaignfls efficacy in averting damaging outcomes. In the context of a limited and intermittent COVID-19 supply, we investigate spatial prioritization strategies based on six metrics using the SLIR compartmental epidemic model. We found that the strategy based on the prevalence of susceptible individuals is optimal especially in early interventions and for intermediate values of vaccination rate. It minimizes the cumulative incidence and consequently averts most infections. Our results suggest also that a better performance is obtained if the single batch allocation is supplemented with one or more updating of the priority list. Moreover, the splitting of supply in two or more batches may significantly improve the optimality of the operation.
虽然全球各地社区都在开展严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）疫苗接种运动，但这些努力面临着有效分配有限供应品的挑战。我们想知道合适的空间分配策略是否能显著提高运动在避免破坏性后果方面的效果。在新冠病毒19（COVID-19）供应有限且断断续续的情况下，我们使用易感-潜伏-感染-康复（SLIR）分区流行模型，基于六个指标研究空间优先级策略。我们发现，基于易感个体患病率的策略是最优的，尤其是在早期干预和中等疫苗接种率的情况下。它能将累计发病率降至最低，从而避免大多数感染。我们的结果还表明，如果在单次批次分配的基础上对优先级列表进行一次或多次更新，会取得更好的效果。此外，将供应品分成两批或更多批可能会显著提高操作的最优性。
