Hanoi Medical University Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Front Public Health. 2022 Sep 9;10:973362. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.973362. eCollection 2022.
Tuberculosis has caused significant public health and economic burdens in Vietnam over the years. The Vietnam National Tuberculosis Program is facing considerable challenges in its goal to eliminate tuberculosis by 2030, with the COVID-19 pandemic having negatively impacted routine tuberculosis services at all administrative levels. While the turnaround time of tuberculosis infection may delay disease detection, high transportation frequency could potentially mislead epidemiological studies. This study was conducted to develop an online geospatial platform to support healthcare workers in performing data visualization and promoting the active case surveillance in community as well as predicting the TB incidence in space and time.
This geospatial platform was developed using tuberculosis notification data managed by The Vietnam National Tuberculosis Program. The platform allows case distribution to be visualized by administrative level and time. Users can retrieve epidemiological measurements from the platform, which are calculated and visualized both temporally and spatially. The prediction model was developed to predict the TB incidence in space and time.
An online geospatial platform was developed, which presented the prediction model providing estimates of case detection. There were 400,370 TB cases with bacterial evidence to be included in the study. We estimated that the prevalence of TB in Vietnam was at 414.67 cases per 100.000 population. Ha Noi, Da Nang, and Ho Chi Minh City were predicted as three likely epidemiological hotspots in the near future.
Our findings indicate that increased efforts should be undertaken to control tuberculosis transmission in these hotspots.
多年来，结核病给越南造成了重大的公共卫生和经济负担。越南国家结核病规划在实现到 2030 年消除结核病的目标上面临着相当大的挑战，COVID-19 大流行对各级行政部门的常规结核病服务产生了负面影响。虽然结核病感染的周转时间可能会延迟疾病的发现，但高运输频率可能会误导流行病学研究。本研究旨在开发一个在线地理空间平台，以支持卫生保健工作者进行数据可视化，并促进社区中的主动病例监测，以及预测时空结核病发病率。
该地理空间平台是使用由越南国家结核病规划管理的结核病报告数据开发的。该平台允许按行政级别和时间可视化病例分布。用户可以从平台上检索流行病学测量值，这些值按时间和空间进行计算和可视化。开发了预测模型以预测时空结核病发病率。
开发了一个在线地理空间平台，展示了预测模型提供的病例检测估计。共有 400370 例有细菌证据的结核病病例纳入研究。我们估计越南的结核病患病率为每 10 万人 414.67 例。预计河内、岘港和胡志明市将成为未来不久的三个潜在的流行病学热点。
我们的研究结果表明，应加大力度控制这些热点地区的结核病传播。
