Chen Fangyao, Chen Shiyu, Si Aima, Luo Yaqi, Hu Weiwei, Zhang Yuxiang, Ma Jiaojiao
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Front Aging Neurosci. 2022 Sep 15;14:973310. doi: 10.3389/fnagi.2022.973310. eCollection 2022.
Parkinson's disease is a disabling degenerative disease of the central nervous system that occurs mainly in elderly people. The changes in the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease at the national level in China over the past three decades have not been fully explored. Research data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The trends of crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by gender of Parkinson's disease in China were analyzed with the age-period-cohort model and the Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of Parkinson's disease were estimated. The gender- and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of Parkinson's disease from 2020 to 2030 were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model with integrated nested Laplace approximations. From 1990 to 2019, the annual percentage change of the age-standardized incidence rate was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.7%-0.8%) for males and 0.2% (95% CI, 0.2-0.2%) for females. And the age-standardized mortality rate for males was 2.9% (95% CI: 2.6%-3.2%) and 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5%-2.1%) for females. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested that the risk and burden of Parkinson's disease continued to increase for the last several decades. Projection analysis suggested that the overall Parkinson's disease incidence will continue to increase for the next decades. It was projected that China would have 4.787 million Parkinson's patients by the year 2030, however, the mortality of Parkinson's disease for both genders in China may keep decreasing. Though the mortality risk may decrease, Parkinson's disease continues to become more common for both genders in China, especially in the senior-aged population. The burden associated with Parkinson's disease would continue to grow. Urgent interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of Parkinson's disease in China.
帕金森病是一种主要发生在老年人中的使中枢神经系统致残的退行性疾病。中国过去三十年帕金森病发病率和死亡率在国家层面的变化尚未得到充分研究。研究数据来自《2019年全球疾病负担》研究。采用年龄-时期-队列模型和Joinpoint回归分析，分析了中国帕金森病按性别划分的粗发病率、年龄标准化发病率和死亡率趋势。估计了年龄、时期和出生队列对帕金森病发病率和死亡率的影响。使用具有集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似的贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了2020年至2030年帕金森病按性别和年龄划分的发病率和死亡率。1990年至2019年，男性年龄标准化发病率的年变化百分比为0.8%（95%CI：0.7%-0.8%），女性为0.2%（95%CI：0.2%-0.2%）。男性年龄标准化死亡率为2.9%（95%CI：2.6%-3.2%），女性为1.8%（95%CI：1.5%-2.1%）。年龄-时期-队列分析结果表明，在过去几十年中，帕金森病的风险和负担持续增加。预测分析表明，在接下来的几十年中，帕金森病的总体发病率将继续上升。预计到2030年中国将有478.7万帕金森病患者，然而，中国帕金森病的男女死亡率可能会持续下降。尽管死亡风险可能降低，但帕金森病在中国男女中仍然越来越普遍，尤其是在老年人群中。与帕金森病相关的负担将继续增加。应实施紧急干预措施以减轻中国帕金森病的负担。
