Ozdemir Dicle
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Mugla Sitki Kocman University, 48000, Mugla, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Feb;29(6):8205-8217. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-16291-2. Epub 2021 Sep 5.
While climate change is having serious impacts on agriculture and may require ongoing adaptation, short-run threats to global food security are also crucial for developing countries. We use dynamic and asymmetric panel autoregressive distributed lag estimators to investigate how the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity vary depending upon the short run and long run in Asia over the period of 1980-2016. The results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between agricultural productivity and climate change variables; however, only CO emissions could be linked to agricultural productivity in the short run. Moreover, while the direction of this effect is positive for the short run, it turns into negative in the long run confirming that carbon fertilization in the atmosphere can to some extent have a positive effect on agricultural productivity.
虽然气候变化正在对农业产生严重影响，可能需要持续进行适应，但全球粮食安全面临的短期威胁对发展中国家也至关重要。我们使用动态和非对称面板自回归分布滞后估计量，来研究1980年至2016年期间，气候变化对亚洲农业生产力的影响如何因短期和长期而有所不同。结果证实，农业生产力与气候变化变量之间存在长期关系；然而，短期内只有二氧化碳排放与农业生产力相关。此外，虽然这种影响在短期内是正向的，但在长期内却变为负向，这证实了大气中的碳施肥效应在一定程度上对农业生产力有积极影响。
