Dee Sylvia G, Nabizadeh Ebrahim, Nittrouer Christine L, Baldwin Jane W, Li Chelsea, Gaviria Lizzy, Guo Selena, Lu Karen, Saunders-Shultz Beck Miguel, Gurwitz Emily, Samarth Gargi, Weinberger Kate R
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences Rice University Houston TX USA.
Department of Mechanical Engineering Rice University Houston TX USA.
Geohealth. 2022 Aug 9;6(8):e2022GH000595. doi: 10.1029/2022GH000595. eCollection 2022 Aug.
Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high-school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid-to-late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat-related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.
酷热是公认的对人类健康的威胁。本研究考察了下个世纪得克萨斯州多种酷热指标的未来预测趋势，并结合得克萨斯州体育工作人员（教练和运动训练师）对高温和气候变化的态度，评估预期的气候变化。利用最近发布的社区地球系统模型第2版和气候模式比较计划的数值气候模拟，预测了得克萨斯州以及特定大都市地区夏季气温、热指数和湿球温度的变化。还向高中和大学体育工作人员发放了一项关于气候变化对体育项目和学生运动员健康影响的态度调查。预计到21世纪中后期，热指数将升至超出被认为对户外运动健康/安全的极限。调查结果显示，人们对气候变化普遍理解并接受，且需要根据更危险的高温相关事件做出调整。然而，一部分体育工作人员仍未认识到气候的变化及其对学生运动员健康和体育项目的影响。加强全州范围内的气候变化与健康宣传，可能会引发体育项目的重要变革（如训练的时间、时长、强度和地点），这些变革应根据日益危险的气温和天气状况来进行。这项工作采用了一种新颖的跨学科方法，来评估未来的高温预测以及体育界对气候变化的态度。
