2014年至2018年中国广州伤害监测中气象因素与老年人跌倒之间的关联
Association between meteorological factors and elderly falls in injury surveillance from 2014 to 2018 in Guangzhou, China.
作者信息
Lin Wei-Quan, Lin Lin, Yuan Le-Xin, Pan Le-Le, Huang Ting-Yuan, Sun Min-Ying, Qin Fa-Ju, Wang Chang, Li Yao-Hui, Zhou Qin, Wu Di, Liang Bo-Heng, Lin Guo-Zhen, Liu Hui
机构信息
Department of Basic Public Health, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510440, China.
Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University & Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China.
出版信息
Heliyon. 2022 Oct 4;8(10):e10863. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10863. eCollection 2022 Oct.
INTRODUCTION
With rapid increase in the aging population, falls injuries have become an important public health problem. However, limited data have been reported on the associations between meteorological factors and falls injuries in the elderly. This study assessed the epidemiology of falls injuries and explored this association in the elderly in Guangzhou, China.
METHODS
Data on elderly falls injury cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Injury Monitoring System and Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau, respectively. The monthly average data on falls injuries and meteorological factors were applied to the data analysis. These correlations were conducted using Pearson correlation analysis. A multiple linear regression model was used to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on falls injuries in the elderly in Guangzhou, China.
RESULTS
Accounting for 49.41% of causes of elderly injury were falls in the Guangzhou Injury Monitoring System from 2014 to 2018, which occupied first place for five consecutive years. The monthly number of elderly falls injury cases was lowest in April and highest in December, and had a positive correlation with monthly mean wind speed ( = 0.187, < 0.01) and a negative correlation with monthly atmospheric pressure ( = -0.142, < 0.05). A multiple linear regression model was constructed ( = 10.176, < 0.01), which explained 23.7% of the variances ( = 0.237). Monthly mean wind speed ( = 76.85, < 0.01) and monthly mean atmospheric pressure ( = -3.162, < 0.01) were independent factors affecting monthly elderly falls injuries.
CONCLUSIONS
Falls are the primary cause of injury among elderly people in Guangzhou, China. Meteorological factors are related to falls injuries in the elderly population. Decreasing activity during high wind and low atmospheric pressure weather may help reduce the number of elderly falls injury cases.
引言
随着老龄化人口的迅速增加，跌倒受伤已成为一个重要的公共卫生问题。然而，关于气象因素与老年人跌倒受伤之间关联的数据报道有限。本研究评估了跌倒受伤的流行病学情况，并在中国广州的老年人中探讨了这种关联。
方法
分别从广州伤害监测系统和广州市气象局收集了2014年至2018年广州老年人跌倒受伤病例数据和气象变量数据。将跌倒受伤和气象因素的月平均数据应用于数据分析。这些相关性采用Pearson相关分析进行。使用多元线性回归模型来估计气象因素对中国广州老年人跌倒受伤的影响。
结果
在广州伤害监测系统中，2014年至2018年老年人伤害原因中跌倒占49.41%，连续五年位居首位。老年人跌倒受伤病例的月数量在4月最低，12月最高，且与月平均风速呈正相关（r = 0.187，P < 0.01），与月大气压呈负相关（r = -0.142，P < 0.05）。构建了一个多元线性回归模型（F = 10.176，P < 0.01），该模型解释了23.7%的方差（R² = 0.237）。月平均风速（β = 76.85，P < 0.01）和月平均大气压（β = -3.162，P < 0.01）是影响老年人每月跌倒受伤的独立因素。
结论
跌倒是中国广州老年人受伤的主要原因。气象因素与老年人群体的跌倒受伤有关。在大风和低气压天气期间减少活动可能有助于减少老年人跌倒受伤病例的数量。
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