Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway.
Arkhangelsk International School of Public Health, Troitsky Ave., 51, Northern State Medical University, 163000 Arkhangelsk, Russia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Aug 21;17(17):6096. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17176096.
This study aimed to investigate associations between the weather conditions and the frequency of medically-treated, non-fatal accidental outdoor fall injuries (AOFIs) in a provincial region of Northwestern Russia. Data on all non-fatal AOFIs that occurred from January 2015 through June 2018 ( = 1125) were extracted from the population-based Shenkursk Injury Registry (SHIR). Associations between the weather conditions and AOFIs were investigated separately for the cold (15 October-14 April) and the warm (15 April-14 October) seasons. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate daily numbers of AOFIs in the cold season, while zero-inflated Poisson regression was used for the warm season. The mean daily number of AOFIs was 1.7 times higher in the cold season compared to the warm season (1.10 vs. 0.65, respectively). The most typical accident mechanism in the cold season was slipping (83%), whereas stepping wrong or stumbling over something was most common (49%) in the warm season. The highest mean daily incidence of AOFIs in the cold season (20.2 per 100,000 population) was observed on days when the ground surface was covered by compact or wet snow, air temperature ranged from -7.0 °C to -0.7 °C, and the amount of precipitation was above 0.4 mm. In the warm season, the highest mean daily incidence (7.0 per 100,000 population) was observed when the air temperature and atmospheric pressure were between 9.0 °C and 15.1 °C and 1003.6 to 1010.9 hPa, respectively. Along with local weather forecasts, broadcasting warnings about the increased risks of outdoor falls may serve as an effective AOFI prevention tool.
本研究旨在调查俄罗斯西北部一个省级地区的天气条件与经医疗治疗的非致命性户外意外跌倒伤害（AOFIs）频率之间的关联。从基于人群的申库尔克伤害登记处（SHIR）中提取了 2015 年 1 月至 2018 年 6 月（=1125）期间发生的所有非致命性 AOFIs 的数据。分别在寒冷季节（10 月 15 日至 4 月 14 日）和温暖季节（4 月 15 日至 10 月 14 日）调查天气条件与 AOFIs 之间的关联。使用负二项回归调查寒冷季节的 AOFIs 日数量，而使用零膨胀泊松回归调查温暖季节的 AOFIs。寒冷季节的平均每日 AOFIs 数量比温暖季节高 1.7 倍（分别为 1.10 和 0.65）。寒冷季节最典型的事故机制是滑倒（83%），而温暖季节最常见的是踏错或绊倒（49%）。寒冷季节 AOFIs 最高的平均每日发病率（每 10 万人 20.2 例）观察到地面覆盖紧实或湿雪、空气温度在-7.0°C 至-0.7°C 之间且降水量高于 0.4 毫米的日子。在温暖季节，当空气温度和大气压在 9.0°C 至 15.1°C 之间且分别为 1003.6 至 1010.9 hPa 时，观察到最高的平均每日发病率（每 10 万人 7.0 例）。除了当地天气预报外，广播关于户外跌倒风险增加的警报可能是预防 AOFIs 的有效工具。
