College of Marxism, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Nov 29;19(23):15930. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192315930.
2011-2019 was the critical period of the low-carbon transformation of the power industry, reflecting the deepening influence of market mechanisms. Decarbonization of the new power system is a systematic project that needs to strengthen the top-level design and overall planning. Therefore, the paper first evaluates the decarbonization of the existing power system and controls the grid architecture, power structure, energy utilization, supply chain, and trading market to further optimize the system by strengthening the basic theoretical research of the new power system, exploring the key elements of the low-carbon development of the power system, promoting the breakthrough of the key subjects, and formulating the new power system decarbonization path. In the international push for carbon neutrality goals, identifying key factors in the decarbonization of the power system is critical to achieving low-carbon development in the power sector. Combined with the characteristics and development trends of the power industry, the five dimensions of "Power generation decarbonization (SP)", "Energy utilization efficiency (EU)", "Supply chain decarbonization (SC)", and "Power grid decarbonization (PG)", and "the Trading system (TS)" are selected to construct an evaluation index system for the power decarbonization and identify the key factors. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) Method is used to calculate the index weight and measure the decarbonization level of the power industry in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. The evaluation results reveal that the overall decarbonization level of the power industry is on the rise and has stabilized after peaking in 2016. The regression results of the systematic GMM estimation show that "the intensity of cross-regional transmission", "the degree of carbon market participation", "technology innovation", and "policy support" can significantly promote power decarbonization, and different regions have heterogeneity. Therefore, we propose to achieve technological innovation and upgrading in the eastern region, strengthen the construction of smart grids in the central region, optimize the power structure in the western region, and improve the market mechanism as a whole, to form a low-carbon development path for the power industry.
2011-2019 年是电力行业低碳转型的关键时期，反映了市场机制的影响不断加深。新型电力系统的脱碳是一个系统工程，需要加强顶层设计和总体规划。因此，本文首先评估现有电力系统的脱碳情况，并控制电网架构、电源结构、能源利用、供应链和交易市场，通过加强新型电力系统的基础理论研究，探索电力系统低碳发展的关键要素，推动关键学科的突破，制定新型电力系统的脱碳路径。在国际上推动碳中性目标的过程中，确定电力系统脱碳的关键因素对于实现电力部门的低碳发展至关重要。结合电力行业的特点和发展趋势，选择“发电脱碳（SP）”、“能源利用效率（EU）”、“供应链脱碳（SC）”、“电网脱碳（PG）”和“交易系统（TS）”五个维度构建电力脱碳评价指标体系，并识别关键因素。利用网络层次分析法（ANP）计算指标权重，测度 2011-2019 年中国 30 个省份的电力行业脱碳水平。评价结果表明，中国电力行业整体脱碳水平呈上升趋势，且在 2016 年达到峰值后趋于稳定。系统广义矩估计（GMM）的回归结果显示，“跨区域输电强度”、“碳市场参与度”、“技术创新”和“政策支持”能够显著促进电力脱碳，且不同地区存在异质性。因此，建议东部地区实现技术创新升级，中部地区加强智能电网建设，西部地区优化电源结构，整体提升市场机制，形成电力行业低碳发展路径。
