Janiak Alexandre, Machado Caio, Turén Javier
Instituto de Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Santiago, Chile.
J Econ Behav Organ. 2021 Feb;182:264-284. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.12.016. Epub 2020 Dec 24.
This paper studies the impact of sanitary protocols aimed at reducing the contagion by Covid-19 during the production and consumption of goods and services. We augment a heterogeneous SIR model with a two-way feedback between contagion and economic activity, allowing for firm and sector heterogeneity. While protocols are a burden for firms (especially SMEs), they may enhance economic activity by avoiding infections that reduce the labor supply. Using Chilean data, we calibrate the model and assess the impact of recommended firm protocols on contagion and economic activity in the after-lockdown period. Our quantitative results suggest that: (i) A second wave of infections is likely in the absence of protocols; (ii) Protocols targeted at some sectors can reduce deaths while at the same time improving economic conditions; (iii) Protocols applied widely have a negative effect on the economy. We also find that applying strict protocols to a few sectors is generally preferable to applying milder protocols to a larger number of sectors, both in terms of health and economic benefits.
本文研究了旨在减少新冠疫情在商品和服务生产及消费过程中传播的卫生协议的影响。我们通过在传染与经济活动之间建立双向反馈，对一个异质性的SIR模型进行了扩展，同时考虑了企业和部门的异质性。虽然协议对企业（尤其是中小企业）来说是一种负担，但它们可能通过避免减少劳动力供应的感染来促进经济活动。利用智利的数据，我们对模型进行了校准，并评估了推荐的企业协议对封锁后时期的传染和经济活动的影响。我们的定量结果表明：（i）在没有协议的情况下，可能会出现第二轮感染；（ii）针对某些部门的协议可以减少死亡人数，同时改善经济状况；（iii）广泛应用的协议对经济有负面影响。我们还发现，从健康和经济效益两方面来看，对少数部门实施严格协议通常比在更多部门实施较宽松协议更为可取。
