International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OEAW, University of Vienna), Laxenburg, Austria.
Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OEAW, University of Vienna), Vienna, Austria.
PLoS One. 2023 Jan 19;18(1):e0280324. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324. eCollection 2023.
Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.
先前的研究已经考察了 COVID-19 对死亡率和生育率的影响。然而，对于大流行对限制国际移民的影响知之甚少。我们使用 Eurostat 和国家移民统计数据以及 ARIMA 时间序列模型，通过预测假设没有大流行时 2020 年的移民流的反事实水平，并将这些估计与观察到的移民人数进行比较，来量化 COVID-19 对 15 个高收入国家移民流动的影响。然后，我们探讨了潜在的驱动因素，例如限制措施和失业率的增加，这些因素可能会缓和移民变化的程度。我们的研究结果表明，除芬兰外，所有国家的移民人数都有所下降。然而，各国之间存在显著的差异。澳大利亚（60%）、西班牙（45%）和瑞典（36%）的降幅最大，而在七个国家中，移民降幅在 15%至 30%之间，在四个国家中，移民降幅小于 15%，但这些结果在统计上并不显著。国际旅行限制、人员流动限制和居家令与移民减少呈较强的相关性，尽管具有相似限制水平的国家经历了不同程度的移民减少。学校和工作关闭以及失业率与移民变化没有关系。
