Girard Lisa-Christine, Okolikj Martin
School of Health in Social Science, Clinical Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Present Address: Department of Psychosocial Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Polit Behav. 2023 Jan 21:1-24. doi: 10.1007/s11109-022-09852-9.
The link between childhood mental health difficulties such as conduct problems and adult political abstention has been overlooked despite early mental health difficulties potentially resulting in political self-marginalisation. Using the1970s British Cohort Study, we estimate developmental trajectories of conduct problems (i.e., from 5 to 16 years). Logistic regression, linear probability models, and propensity score matching were then conducted to test the association between trajectory group membership and voter turnout at 30, 42, and 46 years of age. Three distinct trajectories of conduct problems were identified: a normative ( = 11,871; reference group), moderate-chronic ( = 3433), and elevated-chronic ( = 250) group. Results revealed an association between conduct problems and decreased turnout. In particular the elevated-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 52.2%, 52.0%, and 45.7%, as compared to the normative group at 30, 42, and 46 years respectively. The moderate-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 24.7% as compared to the normative group at age 30 only. Matched results and linear probability models substantiated findings, suggesting (1) the importance of considering childhood factors when examining antecedents of lifelong voting behaviour, and (2) the political self-marginalisation of people with chronic childhood conduct problems more than 3 decades later.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09852-9.
尽管儿童期心理健康问题（如品行问题）可能导致政治自我边缘化，但此类问题与成年后政治弃权之间的联系一直被忽视。利用20世纪70年代英国队列研究，我们估计了品行问题的发展轨迹（即从5岁到16岁）。然后进行逻辑回归、线性概率模型和倾向得分匹配，以检验轨迹组成员与30岁、42岁和46岁时选民投票率之间的关联。确定了品行问题的三种不同轨迹：正常轨迹组（n = 11871；参照组）、中度慢性轨迹组（n = 3433）和高度慢性轨迹组（n = 250）。结果显示品行问题与投票率下降之间存在关联。特别是，与正常轨迹组相比，高度慢性轨迹组在30岁、42岁和46岁时投票的几率分别降低了52.2%、52.0%和45.7%。中度慢性轨迹组仅在30岁时与正常轨迹组相比投票几率降低了24.7%。匹配结果和线性概率模型证实了研究结果，表明（1）在研究终身投票行为的前因时考虑儿童期因素的重要性，以及（2）30多年后童年有慢性品行问题的人的政治自我边缘化。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11109-022-09852-9获取的补充材料。
