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对多重灾害的同步应对:大流行病与大规模地震的综合规划。

Simultaneous response to multiple disasters: Integrated planning for pandemics and large-scale earthquakes.

作者信息

Aydin Nezir, Cetinkale Zeynep

机构信息

Department of Industrial Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Besiktas, 34349, Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkish Airlines, 34149, Yesilkoy, İstanbul, Turkey.

出版信息

Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2023 Feb 15;86:103538. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103538. Epub 2023 Jan 22.

Abstract

Since the beginning of COVID-19, individuals who have SARS-CoV-2 infectious have brought a heavy burden on the healthcare system. Unavoidably, along with pandemics, large-scale disasters, which are possibly emerging, may double the current health crisis. For a powerful disaster response plan, the health services should be prepared for the overwhelming number of disaster victims and infected individuals The proposed framework determines the appropriate number and location of temporary healthcare facilities for large-scale disasters while considering the burden of ongoing pandemic diseases. In this study, first, a multi-period, mix-integer mathematical model is developed to find the location and number of disaster emergency units and disaster medical facilities. Second, we develop an epidemic compartmental model to stimulate the negative effects of the disaster on disease spread and a mixed-integer mathematical model to find optimal number and the location of pandemic hospitals and isolation centers. To validate the mathematical models, a case study is conducted for a district of Istanbul, Turkey.

摘要

自新冠疫情开始以来,感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的个人给医疗系统带来了沉重负担。不可避免的是,随着大流行,可能出现的大规模灾难可能会使当前的健康危机加倍。对于一个强有力的灾难应对计划,卫生服务部门应为大量的灾难受害者和感染者做好准备。所提出的框架在考虑持续流行疾病负担的同时,确定了大规模灾难临时医疗设施的适当数量和位置。在本研究中,首先,开发了一个多时期混合整数数学模型,以确定灾难应急单位和灾难医疗设施的位置和数量。其次,我们开发了一个流行病分区模型来模拟灾难对疾病传播的负面影响,以及一个混合整数数学模型来确定大流行医院和隔离中心的最佳数量和位置。为了验证这些数学模型,对土耳其伊斯坦布尔的一个区进行了案例研究。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/98b4/9890538/9ca22419423a/gr2_lrg.jpg

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