Abebaw Sintayehu Eshetu
Department of Forestry, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources Mekdela Amba University Tulu Awuliya Ethiopia.
Food Sci Nutr. 2025 May 14;13(5):e70260. doi: 10.1002/fsn3.70260. eCollection 2025 May.
Climate change and variability-marked by rising temperatures, altered precipitation, and increased extreme weather-have significant impacts on agriculture, especially in Ethiopia, where farming is the primary livelihood source. In Sub-Saharan Africa, staple crop yields are projected to decline by 10%-20% by 2050 under current climate trends, threatening food security and rural economies. In Ethiopia, maize yields may decrease by around 15% by 2050 due to temperature increases and erratic rainfall. These challenges are not unique to Ethiopia; other climate-sensitive regions like South Asia and Latin America face similar risks. For instance, rice and wheat production in South Asia could decline by 10%-15% by mid-century due to heat stress and changing monsoon patterns, affecting millions of smallholder farmers. This review systematically examined literature from 2000 to 2024, focusing on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Ethiopia and comparable regions. The increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves in East Africa has worsened crop failures, with wheat yields declining by up to 25% in certain areas over recent decades. Climate variability-characterized by rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall-disrupts growing seasons and reduces yields, exacerbating food insecurity. In Ethiopia, climate-induced reductions in crop output have led to an estimated 5%-10% decline in annual agricultural GDP. The heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, combined with limited adaptive capacity and socio-economic vulnerability, intensifies these impacts, resulting in food shortages and economic strain. Beyond Africa, regions dependent on monsoon systems, particularly in South Asia, are also experiencing declining crop productivity. Projected climate scenarios suggest that by 2080, crop production in drought-prone areas across Africa and South Asia could decrease by up to 25% due to rising temperatures and altered rainfall. These projections highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and effective adaptation strategies.
气候变化和气候变率——以气温上升、降水变化和极端天气增加为特征——对农业有重大影响，在埃塞俄比亚尤其如此，在该国农业是主要的生计来源。在撒哈拉以南非洲，按照当前气候趋势，预计到2050年主要作物产量将下降10%-20%，这对粮食安全和农村经济构成威胁。在埃塞俄比亚，由于气温升高和降雨不稳定，到2050年玉米产量可能下降约15%。这些挑战并非埃塞俄比亚独有；其他对气候敏感的地区，如南亚和拉丁美洲，也面临类似风险。例如，由于热应激和季风模式变化，到本世纪中叶，南亚的水稻和小麦产量可能下降10%-15%，影响数百万小农户。本综述系统审查了2000年至2024年的文献，重点关注埃塞俄比亚及类似地区的气候变化影响和适应策略。东非干旱和热浪发生频率增加，使作物歉收情况恶化，近几十年来某些地区的小麦产量下降了多达25%。气候变率——以气温上升和降雨不可预测为特征——扰乱生长季节并降低产量，加剧了粮食不安全状况。在埃塞俄比亚，气候导致的作物产量下降使年度农业国内生产总值估计下降了5%-10%。对雨养农业的严重依赖，加上适应能力有限和社会经济脆弱性，加剧了这些影响，导致粮食短缺和经济紧张。在非洲以外，依赖季风系统的地区，特别是南亚，也在经历作物生产力下降。预计的气候情景表明，到2080年，由于气温上升和降雨变化，非洲和南亚干旱易发地区的作物产量可能下降多达25%。这些预测凸显了对气候适应型农业做法和有效适应策略的迫切需求。
