Development and Validation of a Novel Score for Predicting Long-Term Mortality after an Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND

Long-term mortality prediction can guide feasible discharge care plans and coordinate appropriate rehabilitation services. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to identify patients at risk of mortality after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was cardiovascular death. This study included 21,463 patients with AIS. Three risk prediction models were developed and evaluated: a penalized Cox model, a random survival forest model, and a DeepSurv model. A simplified risk scoring system, called the C-HAND (history of Cancer before admission, Heart rate, Age, eNIHSS, and Dyslipidemia) score, was created based on regression coefficients in the multivariate Cox model for both study outcomes.

RESULTS

All experimental models achieved a concordance index of 0.8, with no significant difference in predicting poststroke long-term mortality. The C-HAND score exhibited reasonable discriminative ability for both study outcomes, with concordance indices of 0.775 and 0.798.

CONCLUSIONS

Reliable prediction models for long-term poststroke mortality were developed using information routinely available to clinicians during hospitalization.