Luhanda Faraja, Irunde Jacob I, Kuznetsov Dmitry
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O.Box 447, Tengeru, Arusha, Tanzania.
Department Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, University of Dar es Salaam, Mkwawa University College of Education, P.O. Box 2513, Iringa, Tanzania.
Parasite Epidemiol Control. 2023 Feb 25;21:e00293. doi: 10.1016/j.parepi.2023.e00293. eCollection 2023 May.
Cryptosporidiosis is a zoonotic disease caused by . The disease poses a public and veterinary health problem worldwide. A deterministic model and its corresponding continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic model are developed and analyzed to investigate cryptosporidiosis transmission dynamics in humans and cattle. The basic reproduction number for the deterministic model and stochastic threshold for the CTMC stochastic model are computed by the next generation matrix method and multitype branching process, respectively. The normalized forward sensitivity index method is used to determine the sensitivity index for each parameter in . Per capita birth rate of cattle, the rate of cattle to acquire cryptosporidiosis infection from the environment and the rate at which infected cattle shed oocysts in the environment play an important role in the persistence of the disease whereas oocysts natural death rate, cattle recovery rate and cattle natural death rate are most negative sensitive parameters in the dynamics of cryptosporidiosis. Numerical results for CTMC stochastic model show that the likelihood of cryptosporidiosis extinction is high when it arises from an infected human. However, there is a major outbreak if cryptosporidiosis emerges either from infected cattle or from oocysts in the environment or when it emerges from all three infectious compartments. Therefore to control the disease, control measures should focus on maintaining personal and cattle farm hygiene and decontaminating the environment to destroy oocysts.
隐孢子虫病是一种由……引起的人畜共患病。该疾病在全球范围内构成公共卫生和兽医卫生问题。我们开发并分析了一个确定性模型及其相应的连续时间马尔可夫链（CTMC）随机模型，以研究隐孢子虫病在人类和牛群中的传播动态。确定性模型的基本再生数和CTMC随机模型的随机阈值分别通过下一代矩阵方法和多类型分支过程来计算。使用归一化前向灵敏度指数方法来确定……中每个参数的灵敏度指数。牛的人均出生率、牛从环境中感染隐孢子虫病的速率以及感染牛在环境中排出卵囊的速率在疾病的持续存在中起着重要作用，而卵囊自然死亡率、牛的恢复率和牛的自然死亡率是隐孢子虫病动态中最具负敏感性的参数。CTMC随机模型的数值结果表明，隐孢子虫病从感染的人类中出现时灭绝的可能性很高。然而，如果隐孢子虫病从感染的牛或环境中的卵囊出现，或者从所有三个感染隔室出现，则会发生重大疫情。因此，为了控制该疾病，控制措施应侧重于保持个人和养牛场卫生，并对环境进行消毒以消灭卵囊。
