Msuya Rehema, Mirau Silas, Nyerere Nkuba, Mbalawata Isambi
School of Computational and Communication Science and Engineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), P.O.Box 3024, Morogoro, Tanzania.
Heliyon. 2024 Nov 9;10(22):e40255. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40255. eCollection 2024 Nov 30.
Brucellosis, a prevalent zoonotic disease caused by bacteria from the genus , presents a substantial public health and economic challenges worldwide. In this paper, we formulate a two-patch deterministic model to investigate the impact of short-term displacement of domestic animals on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis within and between patches with heterogeneous risk of infection. The model analysis is performed, and the basic reproduction number is computed and used in the stability analysis of equilibria. A global sensitivity analysis is performed using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) approach to check the impact of model parameters over a period of time. Numerical simulation results indicate that the increase in time spent by domestic animals in high-risk areas, such as communal grazing areas or wildlife interfaces, significantly increases the spread of infections. This underscores the importance of considering short-term animal movements to communal grazing areas and water points in brucellosis management strategies. It equips policymakers and stakeholders with actionable insights to combat the burden of the disease.
布鲁氏菌病是一种由布鲁氏菌属细菌引起的常见人畜共患病，在全球范围内对公共卫生和经济构成了重大挑战。在本文中，我们构建了一个双斑块确定性模型，以研究家畜短期迁移对感染风险各异的斑块内部和斑块之间布鲁氏菌病传播动态的影响。我们进行了模型分析，计算了基本再生数，并将其用于平衡点的稳定性分析。使用拉丁超立方抽样（LHS）方法进行了全局敏感性分析，以检验一段时间内模型参数的影响。数值模拟结果表明，家畜在高风险区域（如公共放牧区或野生动物接触区域）停留时间的增加，显著加剧了感染的传播。这凸显了在布鲁氏菌病管理策略中考虑家畜向公共放牧区和饮水点的短期移动的重要性。它为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了应对该疾病负担的可行见解。
