Centro de Investigación Biomédica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile.
Human Genetics Program, Biomedical Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
PeerJ. 2023 Mar 10;11:e14892. doi: 10.7717/peerj.14892. eCollection 2023.
An epidemiological model (susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC)) was previously developed and applied to incorporate quarantine measures and calculate COVID-19 contagion dynamics and pandemic control in some Chinese regions. Here, we generalized this model to incorporate the disease recovery rate and applied our model to records of the total number of confirmed cases of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in some Chilean communes.
In each commune, two consecutive stages were considered: a stage without quarantine and an immediately subsequent quarantine stage imposed by the Ministry of Health. To adjust the model, typical epidemiological parameters were determined, such as the confirmation rate and the quarantine rate. The latter allowed us to calculate the reproduction number.
The mathematical model adequately reproduced the data, indicating a higher quarantine rate when quarantine was imposed by the health authority, with a corresponding decrease in the reproduction number of the virus down to values that prevent or decrease its exponential spread. In general, during this second stage, the communes with the lowest social priority indices had the highest quarantine rates, and therefore, the lowest effective viral reproduction numbers. This study provides useful evidence to address the health inequity of pandemics. The mathematical model applied here can be used in other regions or easily modified for other cases of infectious disease control by quarantine.
先前开发并应用了一种流行病学模型（易感者、未隔离感染者、隔离感染者、确诊感染者（SUQC）），以纳入隔离措施并计算中国部分地区的 COVID-19 传播动力学和大流行控制。在这里，我们将该模型推广到纳入疾病恢复率，并将我们的模型应用于智利部分市镇感染 SARS-CoV-2 病毒的确诊病例总数记录。
在每个市镇中，考虑了两个连续阶段：一个没有隔离的阶段和随后卫生部强制实施的隔离阶段。为了调整模型，确定了典型的流行病学参数，例如确诊率和隔离率。后者允许我们计算繁殖数。
数学模型很好地再现了数据，表明当卫生当局实施隔离时，隔离率更高，病毒的繁殖数相应降低，从而防止或减少其指数传播。一般来说，在第二阶段，社会优先级指数最低的市镇隔离率最高，因此，有效病毒繁殖数最低。本研究为解决大流行中的健康不公平问题提供了有用的证据。这里应用的数学模型可以在其他地区使用，或者很容易修改用于其他通过隔离控制传染病的情况。
