Kyushu University, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
Research Institute for Science Education, Inc., Kyoto, 603-8346, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 3;13(1):5409. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32159-6.
The SIR or susceptible-infected-recovered model is the standard compartment model for understanding epidemics and has been used all over the world for COVID-19. While the SIR model assumes that infected patients are identical to symptomatic and infectious patients, it is now known that in COVID-19 pre-symptomatic patients are infectious and there are significant number of asymptomatic patients who are infectious. In this paper, population is separated into five compartments for COVID-19; susceptible individuals (S), pre-symptomatic patients (P), asymptomatic patients (A), quarantined patients (Q) and recovered and/or dead patients (R). The time evolution of population in each compartment is described by a set of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution to the set of differential equations shows that quarantining pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients is effective in controlling the pandemic.
SIR 或易感-感染-恢复模型是理解传染病的标准隔室模型，已在全球范围内用于 COVID-19。虽然 SIR 模型假设感染患者与有症状和传染性患者相同，但现在已知在 COVID-19 中，有症状前患者具有传染性，并且有相当数量的无症状患者具有传染性。在本文中，人群被分为 COVID-19 的五个隔室;易感个体 (S)、有症状前患者 (P)、无症状患者 (A)、隔离患者 (Q) 和康复和/或死亡患者 (R)。每个隔室中的人群随时间的演化由一组常微分方程描述。微分方程组的数值解表明，对有症状前和无症状患者进行隔离在控制大流行方面是有效的。
