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卡萨布兰卡2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的流行病学、临床特征及危险因素

Epidemiology, clinical characteristics and risk factors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Casablanca.

作者信息

Djorwé Soulandi, Bousfiha Amale, Nzoyikorera Néhémie, Nkurunziza Victor, Ait Mouss Khadija, Kawthar Bellamine, Malki Abderrahim

机构信息

Laboratory of Physiopathology and Molecular Genetics, Faculty of Sciences Ben M'Sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca (Morocco), Avenue Cdt Driss El Harti, PB 7955 Sidi Othman Casablanca, Morocco.

Bourgogne Laboratory of Medical and Scientific Analysis, 136, Residence Belhcen, Bd Bourgogne, Casablanca, Morocco.

出版信息

Access Microbiol. 2023 Apr 21;5(4):acmi000400. doi: 10.1099/acmi.0.000400. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

This is an analytical cross-sectional study of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on data collected between 1 November 2020 and 31 March 2021 in Casablanca focusing on the disease's epidemiological status and risk factors. A total of 4569 samples were collected and analysed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR); 967 patients were positive, representing a prevalence of 21.2 % for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The mean age was 47.5±18 years, and infection was more common in young adults (<60 years). However, all age groups were at risk of COVID-19, and in terms of disease severity, the elderly were at greater risk because of potential underlying health problems. Among the clinical signs reported in this study, loss of taste and/or smell, fever, cough and fatigue were highly significant predictors of a positive COVID-19 test result (0.001). An assessment of the reported symptoms revealed that 27 % of COVID-19-positive patients (=261) experienced loss of taste and/or smell, whereas only 2 % (=72) of COVID-19-negative patients did (0.001). This result was consistent between univariate (OR=18.125) and multivariate (adjusted OR=10.484) logistic regression analyses, indicating that loss of taste and/or smell is associated with a more than 10-fold higher multivariate adjusted probability of a positive COVID-19 test (adjusted OR=10.48; 0.001). Binary logistic regression model analysis based on clinical signs revealed that loss of taste and/or smell had a performance index of 0.846 with a 0.001, confirming the diagnostic utility of this symptom for the prediction of COVID-19-positive status. In conclusion, symptom evaluation and a RT-PCR [taking into account cycle threshold ( ) values of the PCR proxy] test remain the most useful screening tools for diagnosing COVID-19. However, loss of taste/smell, fatigue, fever and cough remain the strongest independent predictors of a positive COVID-19 result.

摘要

这是一项关于2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的分析性横断面研究,基于2020年11月1日至2021年3月31日在卡萨布兰卡收集的数据,重点关注该疾病的流行病学状况和风险因素。共收集了4569份样本,并通过逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)进行分析;967名患者呈阳性,严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的患病率为21.2%。平均年龄为47.5±18岁,感染在年轻人(<60岁)中更为常见。然而,所有年龄组都有感染COVID-19的风险,就疾病严重程度而言,老年人由于潜在的基础健康问题而面临更大风险。在本研究报告的临床症状中,味觉和/或嗅觉丧失、发热、咳嗽和疲劳是COVID-19检测呈阳性的高度显著预测因素(P<0.001)。对报告症状的评估显示,27%(=261)的COVID-19阳性患者出现味觉和/或嗅觉丧失,而COVID-19阴性患者中只有2%(=72)出现这种情况(P<0.001)。单因素(OR=18.125)和多因素(调整后OR=10.484)逻辑回归分析结果一致,表明味觉和/或嗅觉丧失与COVID-19检测呈阳性的多因素调整概率高出10倍以上相关(调整后OR=10.48;P<0.001)。基于临床症状的二元逻辑回归模型分析显示,味觉和/或嗅觉丧失的表现指数为0.846,P<0.001,证实了该症状对预测COVID-19阳性状态的诊断效用。总之,症状评估和RT-PCR[考虑PCR替代指标的循环阈值( )值]检测仍然是诊断COVID-19最有用的筛查工具。然而,味觉/嗅觉丧失、疲劳、发热和咳嗽仍然是COVID-19检测呈阳性的最强独立预测因素。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2884/10202397/7f1750d59466/acmi-5-400-g001.jpg

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