建立模型以评估墨西哥钠摄入量对心血管疾病死亡率的影响。
Modelling the impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Mexico.
机构信息
Research Center of Nutrition and Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
El Poder del Consumidor A.C., Ciudad de México, Mexico.
出版信息
BMC Public Health. 2023 May 26;23(1):983. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15827-0.
BACKGROUND
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent the main cause of death in Mexico, while high blood pressure is suffered by about half of the adult population. Sodium intake is one of the main risk factors for these diseases. The Mexican adult population consumes about 3.1 g/day, an amount that exceeds what is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) < 2 g sodium/day. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing sodium intake on CVD mortality in Mexico using a scenario simulation model.
METHODS
The Integrated Model of Preventable Risk (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) due to CVD in the Mexican adult population following the following sodium intake reduction scenarios: (a) according to the WHO recommendations; (b) an "optimistic" reduction of 30%; and (c) an "intermediate" reduction of 10%.
RESULTS
The results show that a total of 27,700 CVD deaths could be prevented or postponed for scenario A, 13,900 deaths for scenario B, and 5,800 for scenario C. For all scenarios, the highest percentages of DPP by type of CVD are related to ischemic heart disease, hypertensive disease, and stroke.
CONCLUSIONS
The results show that if Mexico considers implementing policies with greater impact to reduce sodium/salt consumption, a significant number of deaths from CVD could be prevented or postponed.
背景
心血管疾病（CVD）是墨西哥的主要死因，而约有一半的成年人口患有高血压。钠摄入量是这些疾病的主要风险因素之一。墨西哥成年人口每天的摄入量约为 3.1 克，超过了世界卫生组织（WHO）建议的每天<2 克钠的摄入量。本研究的目的是使用情景模拟模型估计减少钠摄入量对墨西哥 CVD 死亡率的影响。
方法
使用预防风险综合模型（PRIME）来估计墨西哥成年人口因 CVD 而预防或推迟（DPP）的死亡人数，具体通过以下三种钠摄入量减少情景来实现：（a）按照世卫组织的建议；（b）“乐观”减少 30%；（c）“中等”减少 10%。
结果
结果表明，情景 A 可预防或推迟 27700 例 CVD 死亡，情景 B 可预防或推迟 13900 例死亡，情景 C 可预防或推迟 5800 例死亡。对于所有情景，通过 CVD 类型划分的 DPP 百分比最高的是缺血性心脏病、高血压疾病和中风。
结论
结果表明，如果墨西哥考虑实施更具影响力的政策来减少钠/盐的摄入量，那么可以预防或推迟大量 CVD 死亡人数。
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