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1989 - 2022年中国云南省伤寒和副伤寒发病率的趋势及空间格局分析

Trends and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever Incidence - Yunnan Province, China, 1989-2022.

作者信息

Shen Xiulian, Zhang Liqiong, Guo Lining, He Jibo, Yu Weijun

机构信息

Epidemic Surveillance/Public Health Emergency Response Center, Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming City, Yunnan Province, China.

Department of Intervention Research, Yunnan Institute for Drug Abuse, Kunming City, Yunnan Province, China.

出版信息

China CDC Wkly. 2024 Oct 11;6(41):1049-1053. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2024.216.

DOI:10.46234/ccdcw2024.216
PMID:39502396
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11532531/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

This study explored the incidence trends and spatial clustering of typhoid and paratyphoid fever (TPF) in Yunnan Province to provide scientific evidence for developing and improving prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

Temporal trends were investigated by calculating the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), along with their 95% confidence intervals (s). The spatial clustering of TPF across Yunnan Province was examined using global Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 206,066 TPF cases were reported in Yunnan Province from 1989 to 2022, with an average annual incidence of 13.98 per 100,000 population and a case fatality rate of 2.5 per 1,000. The greatest number of cases was reported during July and August. The 25-34-year age group had the highest incidence, and farmers were prominently represented. TPF incidence in Yunnan Province showed a significant decrease and spatial clustering. From 2005 to 2022, 13 county-level cities/counties/municipal districts in 5 prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province were identified as statistically significant H-H spatial clusters of TPF incidence. A total of 24 TPF outbreaks were reported in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of TPF in Yunnan Province showed a significant decrease and spatial clustering. Control strategies should focus on high-incidence areas, seasons, and populations to reduce the incidence of TPF.

摘要

引言

本研究探讨了云南省伤寒和副伤寒热（TPF）的发病趋势和空间聚集性，为制定和完善预防控制策略提供科学依据。

方法

通过计算年度百分比变化（APC）和平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）及其95%置信区间来研究时间趋势。使用全局莫兰指数（Moran's I）和空间关联局部指标（LISA）统计量来检验云南省TPF的空间聚集性。

结果

1989年至2022年云南省共报告TPF病例206,066例，平均年发病率为每10万人13.98例，病死率为每1000例2.5例。报告病例数最多的月份是7月和8月。25至34岁年龄组发病率最高，农民占比突出。云南省TPF发病率呈显著下降趋势且存在空间聚集性。2005年至2022年，云南省5个州（市）的13个县级市/县/市辖区被确定为TPF发病率具有统计学意义的高-高空间聚集区。2005年至2022年云南省共报告24起TPF疫情。

结论

云南省TPF发病率呈显著下降趋势且存在空间聚集性。防控策略应聚焦于高发地区、季节和人群，以降低TPF发病率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d12f/11532531/4bf02f566194/ccdcw-6-41-1049-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d12f/11532531/93461ef2a038/ccdcw-6-41-1049-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d12f/11532531/4bf02f566194/ccdcw-6-41-1049-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d12f/11532531/93461ef2a038/ccdcw-6-41-1049-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d12f/11532531/4bf02f566194/ccdcw-6-41-1049-2.jpg

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