Ben-Shahar Danny, Gabriel Stuart, Golan Roni
Coller School of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6139001, Israel.
Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481, USA.
Vaccines (Basel). 2023 May 31;11(6):1046. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11061046.
We employ unique panel data on the universe of COVID-19 vaccination and infection cases in Israel to examine the role of political belief in COVID-19 vaccine uptake, virus transmission, and closure policy response. The paper identifies political beliefs based on statistical area votes in national elections held in Israel on the eve of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. Unlike the U.S. and elsewhere, pandemic policy intervention in Israel was broadly supported by politicians across the belief spectrum. As such, household response to virus risk was not biased by contemporaneous partisan disagreement and debate among political leaders. Findings show, all things equal, that in the wake of emergent and localized virus risk, voters in politically right-of-center and religious areas displayed substantially higher odds of both vaccine resistance and virus transmission as compared to their left-center counterparts. Moreover, political belief is highly salient to aggregate pandemic outcomes. Model simulation shows that had all areas responded to virus risk with the more risk-averse behaviors of left-of-center areas, the number of vaccinations nationwide would have increased by 15 percent. That same scenario results in a full 30 percent reduction in total infection cases. Results also show that coercive policy measures such as economic closure were more effective in reducing virus transmission among less risk-averse right-wing and religious areas. Findings provide new evidence of the role of political belief in household response to health risks. Results further underscore the importance of timely, targeted messaging and intervention among divergent political belief groups to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance disease control. Future studies should explore the external validity of findings, including the use of individual voter data, if available, to evaluate political belief effects.
我们利用以色列新冠疫苗接种和感染病例全域的独特面板数据,来研究政治信仰在新冠疫苗接种、病毒传播及封锁政策应对方面所起的作用。本文根据2020年3月新冠疫情爆发前夕以色列举行的全国选举中的统计区域投票情况来确定政治信仰。与美国及其他地区不同,以色列的疫情政策干预得到了不同政治信仰派别的政治家的广泛支持。因此,家庭对病毒风险的应对并未因政治领导人之间同时存在的党派分歧和辩论而产生偏差。研究结果表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,在出现紧急和局部病毒风险后,政治上处于中右翼和宗教地区的选民与中左翼地区的选民相比,疫苗抵制和病毒传播的几率要高得多。此外,政治信仰对总体疫情结果具有高度显著性。模型模拟显示,如果所有地区都以中左翼地区更规避风险的行为来应对病毒风险,那么全国的疫苗接种数量将增加15%。同样的情况会使总感染病例数整整减少30%。结果还表明,诸如经济封锁等强制性政策措施在减少风险规避性较低的右翼和宗教地区的病毒传播方面更为有效。研究结果为政治信仰在家庭应对健康风险中的作用提供了新证据。结果进一步强调了在不同政治信仰群体中及时进行有针对性的信息传播和干预以减少疫苗犹豫并加强疾病控制的重要性。未来的研究应探索这些发现的外部有效性,包括在有可用个体选民数据的情况下,利用这些数据来评估政治信仰的影响。