College of Ecological Technology and Engineering, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai, 201418, China.
Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China.
BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 30;23(1):1270. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16113-9.
It is true that Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) will increase social burden, especially in developing countries. Urban-rural differences in the lagged effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on COPD mortality remain unclear, in Chongqing, China.
In this study, a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNMs) was established to describe the urban-rural differences in the lagged effects of PM2.5, PM10 and COPD mortality in Chongqing, using 312,917 deaths between 2015 and 2020.
According to the DLNMs results, COPD mortality in Chongqing increases with increasing PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations, and the relative risk (RR) of the overall 7-day cumulative effect is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. High values of RR in urban areas occurred at the beginning of exposure (Lag 0 ~ Lag 1). High values of RR in rural areas occur mainly during Lag 1 to Lag 2 and Lag 6 to Lag 7.
Exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 is associated with an increased risk of COPD mortality in Chongqing, China. COPD mortality in urban areas has a high risk of increase in the initial phase of PM2.5 and PM10 exposure. There is a stronger lagging effect at high concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 exposure in rural areas, which may further exacerbate inequalities in levels of health and urbanization.
慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)确实会增加社会负担,尤其是在发展中国家。在中国重庆,城乡之间细颗粒物(PM2.5)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10)对 COPD 死亡率的滞后效应存在差异,但尚不清楚。
本研究采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNMs),利用 2015 年至 2020 年期间的 312917 例死亡数据,描述了重庆市 PM2.5、PM10 和 COPD 死亡率的城乡滞后效应差异。
根据 DLNMs 结果,重庆市 COPD 死亡率随 PM2.5 和 PM10 浓度的增加而增加,且农村地区的整体 7 天累积效应的相对风险(RR)高于城市地区。城市地区 RR 值较高的时期出现在暴露的初期(Lag 0 至 Lag 1)。农村地区 RR 值较高的时期主要发生在 Lag 1 至 Lag 2 和 Lag 6 至 Lag 7。
在中国重庆市,PM2.5 和 PM10 的暴露与 COPD 死亡率的增加有关。城市地区的 COPD 死亡率在 PM2.5 和 PM10 暴露的初始阶段具有较高的增加风险。在 PM2.5 和 PM10 高浓度暴露时,农村地区的滞后效应更强,这可能进一步加剧健康水平和城市化程度的不平等。