Cravens Amanda E, Clifford Katherine R, Knapp Corrine, Travis William R
Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Apr;39(2):e14331. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14331. Epub 2024 Jul 17.
Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.
气候变化正在引发生态转型,这对传统的土地管理决策方法构成了挑战。抵抗-接受-引导(RAD)框架有助于管理者思考如何应对这一挑战。我们研究了随着时间推移,以复杂且动态的方式抵抗、接受和引导变化的选择的可行性。我们考虑了4种不同类型的社会可行性:监管、财务、公众和组织。我们的评论基于文献综述和现有实例,但必然带有推测性成分,因为关于这种新兴管理策略的实证证据很少。我们预计,随着时间的推移,抵抗策略的可行性将降低,因为管理者会遇到在生态、监管、财务或公众层面抵抗都不可行的情况。同样,我们预计,随着监管框架越来越允许使用接受和引导策略,如果成本降低,且公众接受这些策略,管理者将越来越认为接受和引导策略比目前更具可行性。随着时间的推移探索多种类型的可行性,能够同时考虑社会和生态的变化轨迹。我们的理论表明,深化决策的时间跨度能让人仔细思考何时应采用不同方法以及如何随时间将它们结合起来。