Faculty, Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266003, China.
Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266003, China.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Dec 14;21(1):2280. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-12338-8.
Global fertility declines have become an inevitable trend, and many countries are adopting policies to drive fertility increases. Fertility intention plays an important role in predicting fertility behavior. The Chinese government has recently issued the 'three-child' policy, and there is still little research on the third birth intention of the childbearing-age population. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence and related reasons of third birth intention in the childbearing-age population in mainland China, and analyze the sociodemographic differences.
A cross-sectional survey was conducted in mainland China from June to July 2021. A total of 15,332 childbearing-age participants responded and completed the Fertility Intention Questionnaire online through the Wenjuanxing Platform. Data were explored and analyzed by SPSS (version 22.0) software. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the current situation and reasons of third birth intention. Binary logistic regression analysis was applied to assess the influencing factors in the sociodemographic level.
The mean age of the participants was 32.9 ± 5.94 years. Only 12.2% of participants reported having third birth intention. The subjective norm of having both son and daughter (22.0%) and busy at work (29.2%) accounted for the largest proportion in the reasons of acceptance and rejection, respectively. Age has negative impact on third birth intention (OR = 0.960). Men were 2.209 times more likely to have three children than women (P < 0.001). With the improvement of education and family monthly income, the birth intention shows a downward trend. Compared with Han nationalities, first marriage and city residents, the ethnic minorities, remarriage and rural residents have stronger birth intention (all P < 0.05). And individuals with two existing children are inclined to have the third child (OR = 1.839).
The third birth intention in the childbearing-age population in China is still low after the announcement of the three-child policy. It is necessary to create a favorable fertility context for childbearing-age group with high level of third birth intention, like younger, male, minority, remarriage, with lower education and family monthly income, living in rural and two existing children. Furthermore, removing barriers for those unintended is also prominent to ensure the impetus of policy.
全球生育率下降已成为不可避免的趋势，许多国家都在采取措施推动生育率的提高。生育意愿在预测生育行为方面起着重要作用。中国政府最近出台了“三孩”政策，但对于育龄人群的第三次生育意愿仍缺乏研究。因此，本研究旨在调查中国大陆育龄人群的第三次生育意愿的流行情况及相关原因，并分析其社会人口学差异。
本研究于 2021 年 6 月至 7 月在中国内地进行了一项横断面调查。共有 15332 名育龄参与者通过问卷星平台在线完成了生育意愿问卷。采用 SPSS（版本 22.0）软件进行数据探索和分析。采用描述性统计方法描述第三次生育意愿的现状和原因。采用二元逻辑回归分析评估社会人口学水平的影响因素。
参与者的平均年龄为 32.9±5.94 岁。只有 12.2%的参与者表示有第三次生育意愿。生育一儿一女的主观规范（22.0%）和工作繁忙（29.2%）是接受和拒绝的最大原因。年龄对第三次生育意愿有负面影响（OR=0.960）。男性生育三个孩子的可能性是女性的 2.209 倍（P<0.001）。随着教育程度和家庭月收入的提高，生育意愿呈下降趋势。与汉族、初婚和城镇居民相比，少数民族、再婚和农村居民的生育意愿更强（均 P<0.05）。有两个现有孩子的个体更倾向于生育第三个孩子（OR=1.839）。
在“三孩”政策公布后，中国育龄人群的第三次生育意愿仍然较低。有必要为生育意愿较高的育龄群体创造有利的生育环境，如年龄较小、男性、少数民族、再婚、教育程度和家庭月收入较低、居住在农村地区、有两个现有孩子的群体。此外，消除那些非计划生育的障碍也很突出，以确保政策的推动力。
