Assessing the additional health burden of antibiotic resistant Enterobacteriaceae in surface waters through an integrated QMRA and DALY approach.

Antibiotic resistant Enterobacteriaceae pose a significant threat to public health. However, limited studies have evaluated the health risks associated with exposure to antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB), especially in natural environments. While quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) assesses microbial risks in terms of the probability of infection, it does not account for the severity of health outcomes. In this study, a QMRA-DALY model was developed to integrate QMRA with health burden (disability-adjusted life years (DALY)) from infections caused by ARB. The model considers uncertainties in probability of infection and health burden assessment using Monte Carlo simulations. The study collected antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance data from surface waters with different land uses. Results revealed water bodies with agricultural land use to be the main AMR hotspots, with the highest additional health burden observed in infections caused by meropenem-resistant E. coli (∆DALY = 0.0105 DALY/event) compared to antibiotic-susceptible E. coli. The estimated ∆DALY for antibiotic-resistant K. pneumoniae was lower than for antibiotic-resistant E. coli (highest ∆DALY = 0.00048 DALY/event). The study highlights the need for better evaluation of AMR associated health burden, and effective measures to mitigate the risks associated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in natural environments.