Emerg Infect Dis. 2023 Aug;29(8):1589-1597. doi: 10.3201/eid2908.221634.
Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.
污水分析在许多环境中被用于监测 SARS-CoV-2，但污水检测结果与发病率的吻合程度仍不清楚。丹麦拥有广泛的污水分析系统，每周在大约 200 个地点进行 3 次检测，覆盖了 85%的人口；该国还向所有居民提供免费的 SARS-CoV-2 PCR 检测。通过时间序列分析进行建模，我们发现污水数据与流行变异株信息以及进行的人类检测数量相结合，与阳性检测者的发病率曲线密切吻合。结果在区域层面和经常接受检测的医疗保健人员的亚人群中是一致的。我们使用污水分析数据在 2022 年 3 月之后检测减少到最低水平时估算了发病率。这些结果表明，来自大规模污水监测系统的数据可以很好地替代 COVID-19 发病率和流行控制。
