Liu Lun, Wang Hui, Zhang Zhu, Zhang Weiyi, Zhuang Shengsheng, Wang Shenhao, Silva Elisabete A, Lv Tingmiao, Chio Chi On, Wang Yifan, Dao Rina, Tang Chuchang, Ao-Ieong On Ieng
School of Government, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Institute of Public Governance, Peking University, Beijing, China.
NPJ Urban Sustain. 2022;2(1):28. doi: 10.1038/s42949-022-00074-w. Epub 2022 Nov 3.
COVID-19 raises attention to epidemic transmission in various places. This study analyzes the transmission risks associated with human activity places at multiple scales, including different types of settlements and eleven types of specific establishments (restaurants, bars, etc.), using COVID-19 data in 906 urban areas across four continents. Through a difference-in-difference approach, we identify the causal effects of activities at various places on epidemic transmission. We find that at the micro-scale, though the transmission risks at different establishments differ across countries, sports, entertainment, and catering establishments are generally more infectious. At the macro-scale, contradicting common beliefs, it is consistent across countries that transmission does not increase with settlement size and density. It is also consistent that specific establishments play a lesser role in transmission in larger settlements, suggesting more transmission happening elsewhere. These findings contribute to building a system of knowledge on the linkage between places, human activities, and disease transmission.
新冠疫情引发了人们对各地疫情传播的关注。本研究利用四大洲906个城市地区的新冠疫情数据，分析了不同尺度下与人类活动场所相关的传播风险，包括不同类型的住区和11种特定场所（餐馆、酒吧等）。通过双重差分法，我们确定了各地活动对疫情传播的因果效应。我们发现，在微观层面，尽管不同国家不同场所的传播风险存在差异，但体育、娱乐和餐饮场所通常更具传染性。在宏观层面，与普遍看法相反的是，各国一致认为传播不会随着住区规模和密度的增加而增加。同样一致的是，特定场所对较大住区传播的影响较小，这表明更多传播发生在其他地方。这些发现有助于建立一个关于场所、人类活动和疾病传播之间联系的知识体系。
