Mohammadi Heidar, Laal Fereydoon, Mohammadian Farough, Yari Peyman, Kangavari Mehdi, Moradi Hanifi Saber
Department of Occupational Health and Safety, School of Health, Larestan University of Medical Sciences, Larestan, Iran.
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Department of Occupational Health Engineering, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran.
Heliyon. 2023 Aug 1;9(8):e18842. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18842. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Accidents in process industries cause irreparable economic, human, financial and environmental losses annually. Accident assessment and analysis using modern risk assessment methods is a necessity for preventing these accidents. This study was conducted with the aim of Dynamic risk assessment of tank storage using modern methods and comparing them with traditional method. In this study, bow tie (BT) method was used to analyze the Leakage event and its consequences and model the cause of the outcome, and the Bayesian network method was used to update the probability rate of the consequences. Then, four release scenarios were used. Possible selection and release outcome were modeled using version 5.4 of ALOHA software. Finally, according to the degree of reproducibility of possible consequences and risk number modeling for the four scenarios were estimated. The results of modeling the cause and effect showed that 50 Basic events are effective in chemical leakage and Pool fire is the most probable consequence due to chemical leakage in both BT and Bayesian network (BN) models. Also, the modeling results showed that Leakage 50 mm diameter has the highest Emission rate (80 kg/min) and Leakage of 1 mm have the lowest emission rate. The results of risk assessment showed that the estimated risk number in both models is in the unacceptable range. In this study, an integrated approach including BT, Fuzzy Bayesian networks and consequence modeling was used to estimate the risk in tank storage. The use of these three approaches makes the results of risk assessment more objective than conventional methods. The results of outcome modeling can be used as a guide in adopting accident prevention and emergency preparedness approaches
流程工业中的事故每年都会造成无法挽回的经济、人员、财务和环境损失。使用现代风险评估方法进行事故评估和分析是预防这些事故的必要手段。本研究旨在采用现代方法对储罐进行动态风险评估，并将其与传统方法进行比较。在本研究中，采用蝴蝶结（BT）方法分析泄漏事件及其后果，并对结果原因进行建模，同时采用贝叶斯网络方法更新后果的概率率。然后，使用了四种泄漏场景。使用ALOHA软件5.4版本对可能的选择和泄漏结果进行建模。最后，根据四种场景可能后果的可再现程度和风险数值建模进行了估计。因果建模结果表明，50个基本事件对化学品泄漏有影响，在BT模型和贝叶斯网络（BN）模型中，池火是化学品泄漏最可能的后果。此外，建模结果表明，直径50毫米的泄漏具有最高的排放率（80千克/分钟），而1毫米的泄漏排放率最低。风险评估结果表明，两个模型中估计的风险数值都处于不可接受的范围内。在本研究中，采用了一种包括BT、模糊贝叶斯网络和后果建模的综合方法来估计储罐风险。使用这三种方法使得风险评估结果比传统方法更客观。结果建模结果可作为采取事故预防和应急准备措施的指导。
